Teacher shortage as estimated by Sutcher, Darling-Hammond, and Carver-Thomas: Projected teacher supply and demand for new teachers, 2003–2004 through 2024–2025 school years
| Year | Actual demand for new hires | Projected demand for new hires | Estimated supply | Projected estimated supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 236407.4 | |||
| 2005 | 251671.4 | |||
| 2006 | 259968.5 | |||
| 2007 | 274427.5 | |||
| 2008 | 247964.2 | 273615.7 | ||
| 2009 | 268459.0 | |||
| 2010 | 272894.2 | |||
| 2011 | 253202.0 | |||
| 2012 | 172754.0 | 172754.0 | 241766.1 | |
| 2013 | 249632.1 | 231839.2 | ||
| 2014 | 259531.2 | 222309.7 | 222309.7 | |
| 2015 | 262031.5 | 222165.4 | ||
| 2016 | 259776.8 | 196068.4 | ||
| 2017 | 260458.5 | 187454.6 | ||
| 2018 | 299813.0 | 187645.6 | ||
| 2019 | 295432.5 | 188357.0 | ||
| 2020 | 299959.3 | 189183.9 | ||
| 2021 | 302092.3 | 190060.3 | ||
| 2022 | 306366.3 | 147135.6 | ||
| 2023 | 311622.3 | 128630.2 | ||
| 2024 | 319509.5 | 121992.2 | ||
| 2025 | 316012.8 | 114902.7 |
Note: The supply line represents the midpoints of upper- and lower-bound teacher supply estimates. Years on the horizontal axis represent the latter annual year in the school year.
Source: Recreated with permission from Figure 1 in Leib Sutcher, Linda Darling-Hammond, and Desiree Carver-Thomas, A Coming Crisis in Teaching? Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortages in the U.S., Learning Policy Institute, September 2016. See the report for full analysis of the shortage and for the methodology.