Exchange rates explain nearly 80% of the movement in soybean prices: U.S. soybean prices and the real value of the U.S. dollar, January 1997–May 2020

Date Real dollar index Soybean price index
Jan-1997 89.846 124.4
Feb-1997 91.3934 127.1
Mar-1997 92.3092 144.8
Apr-1997 92.6654 142.4
May-1997 91.5753 149.8
Jun-1997 91.1354 140.0
Jul-1997 92.1604 137.1
Aug-1997 93.7113 124.5
Sep-1997 93.9532 120.6
Oct-1997 94.6141 119.1
Nov-1997 95.9972 124.5
Dec-1997 99.3624 117.8
Jan-1998 102.1075 113.2
Feb-1998 100.3897 116.9
Mar-1998 100.0598 113.3
Apr-1998 99.7845 107.8
May-1998 100.562 110.2
Jun-1998 102.727 104.8
Jul-1998 103.0308 109.6
Aug-1998 104.6407 93.7
Sep-1998 102.8371 90.5
Oct-1998 99.946 92.2
Nov-1998 99.6076 96.0
Dec-1998 98.7106 92.7
Jan-1999 98.7733 91.8
Feb-1999 99.9907 84.0
Mar-1999 101.0852 78.5
Apr-1999 100.998 80.8
May-1999 100.7253 79.6
Jun-1999 101.1534 79.1
Jul-1999 101.4274 70.5
Aug-1999 100.4354 79.9
Sep-1999 100.0213 82.3
Oct-1999 99.5535 80.0
Nov-1999 99.8412 78.6
Dec-1999 99.9463 76.5
Jan-2000 99.8799 79.6
Feb-2000 101.2479 83.9
Mar-2000 101.7325 87.1
Apr-2000 102.299 87.3
May-2000 104.5402 91.6
Jun-2000 103.6564 87.0
Jul-2000 103.9295 80.8
Aug-2000 104.4002 77.8
Sep-2000 105.8875 82.8
Oct-2000 107.3917 79.4
Nov-2000 108.0006 79.1
Dec-2000 107.1324 84.1
Jan-2001 107.4905 82.8
Feb-2001 108.2975 75.0
Mar-2001 109.891 76.2
Apr-2001 110.5281 73.3
May-2001 110.5766 76.5
Jun-2001 111.4064 80.8
Jul-2001 111.5364 87.0
Aug-2001 109.554 88.4
Sep-2001 110.1595 80.1
Oct-2001 110.54 75.3
Nov-2001 111.0101 74.7
Dec-2001 110.9411 73.6
Jan-2002 112.1863 74.5
Feb-2002 112.8094 73.8
Mar-2002 112.2398 76.7
Apr-2002 112.0559 78.3
May-2002 110.5853 81.4
Jun-2002 109.1517 86.2
Jul-2002 107.5697 97.8
Aug-2002 108.8697 100.4
Sep-2002 109.7111 99.5
Oct-2002 110.5092 92.6
Nov-2002 109.2711 95.9
Dec-2002 108.679 95.4
Jan-2003 107.366 93.3
Feb-2003 107.5059 97.4
Mar-2003 107.0154 97.6
Apr-2003 105.837 105.5
May-2003 102.2899 109.6
Jun-2003 101.7892 108.0
Jul-2003 103.0553 102.0
Aug-2003 104.4244 96.6
Sep-2003 103.3567 104.8
Oct-2003 101.047 125.1
Nov-2003 100.6482 131.3
Dec-2003 99.2942 134.2
Jan-2004 97.8175 141.8
Feb-2004 98.4235 144.0
Mar-2004 99.3359 162.6
Apr-2004 99.9257 165.9
May-2004 101.6737 178.4
Jun-2004 100.8244 154.4
Jul-2004 100.05 153.7
Aug-2004 100.0206 99.1
Sep-2004 99.7427 96.0
Oct-2004 98.5743 84.2
Nov-2004 96.3623 85.7
Dec-2004 95.2261 94.3
Jan-2005 95.612 92.6
Feb-2005 95.8581 91.7
Mar-2005 95.4702 112.4
Apr-2005 96.4072 102.9
May-2005 96.6458 107.7
Jun-2005 97.5106 116.0
Jul-2005 98.178 118.3
Aug-2005 97.3399 109.2
Sep-2005 98.2219 93.2
Oct-2005 99.1157 88.5
Nov-2005 99.2465 97.7
Dec-2005 98.4504 100.9
Jan-2006 97.3054 96.3
Feb-2006 97.4982 96.7
Mar-2006 97.6888 95.4
Apr-2006 97.2008 92.6
May-2006 95.2746 98.1
Jun-2006 96.521 96.7
Jul-2006 96.6865 98.6
Aug-2006 96.2415 90.7
Sep-2006 95.9166 87.0
Oct-2006 95.6514 91.8
Nov-2006 94.6661 109.1
Dec-2006 94.0612 108.9
Jan-2007 94.9926 108.4
Feb-2007 94.8199 123.1
Mar-2007 94.5743 115.9
Apr-2007 93.4545 119.4
May-2007 92.7996 125.3
Jun-2007 92.5428 131.9
Jul-2007 91.1791 140.6
Aug-2007 91.3879 128.5
Sep-2007 90.3068 145.3
Oct-2007 88.3764 151.1
Nov-2007 87.3326 173.2
Dec-2007 87.9654 192.5
Jan-2008 87.3029 211.2
Feb-2008 86.2413 219.4
Mar-2008 84.5722 228.7
Apr-2008 84.1423 228.2
May-2008 84.5052 226.9
Jun-2008 84.9997 242.6
Jul-2008 84.6115 259.5
Aug-2008 86.681 203.0
Sep-2008 88.7885 200.6
Oct-2008 93.8688 144.1
Nov-2008 94.705 147.2
Dec-2008 93.1988 135.1
Jan-2009 93.9809 161.9
Feb-2009 96.6073 164.7
Mar-2009 96.8163 150.9
Apr-2009 94.4326 176.1
May-2009 91.6955 193.3
Jun-2009 91.0825 213.0
Jul-2009 90.6763 182.5
Aug-2009 89.618 200.0
Sep-2009 88.9744 162.1
Oct-2009 87.8368 170.1
Nov-2009 87.3979 160.0
Dec-2009 87.6292 176.2
Jan-2010 87.655 167.1
Feb-2010 88.6481 157.9
Mar-2010 87.7638 160.1
Apr-2010 87.1576 163.2
May-2010 89.3522 161.7
Jun-2010 89.7047 163.4
Jul-2010 88.2443 174.3
Aug-2010 87.4789 176.2
Sep-2010 86.5285 173.3
Oct-2010 84.1785 192.2
Nov-2010 84.2268 219.1
Dec-2010 84.8632 216.2
Jan-2011 83.8443 227.4
Feb-2011 83.2495 229.8
Mar-2011 82.555 214.5
Apr-2011 81.274 224.5
May-2011 81.294 226.2
Jun-2011 81.0863 233.2
Jul-2011 80.5208 232.7
Aug-2011 81.0682 222.2
Sep-2011 83.46 227.9
Oct-2011 84.0356 205.5
Nov-2011 84.5622 201.2
Dec-2011 85.2467 190.3
Jan-2012 84.5898 206.5
Feb-2012 83.3299 214.3
Mar-2012 83.6939 229.9
Apr-2012 83.8977 243.1
May-2012 85.1276 240.7
Jun-2012 86.2289 245.1
Jul-2012 85.7197 274.7
Aug-2012 85.1596 282.8
Sep-2012 84.0119 289.8
Oct-2012 83.8167 263.1
Nov-2012 84.0993 240.7
Dec-2012 83.3883 252.3
Jan-2013 83.266 246.8
Feb-2013 84.1226 244.9
Mar-2013 84.5212 254.4
Apr-2013 83.9251 242.5
May-2013 84.2258 254.6
Jun-2013 84.8774 265.5
Jul-2013 85.3251 274.6
Aug-2013 85.2633 225.6
Sep-2013 84.8615 241.6
Oct-2013 83.9076 222.2
Nov-2013 84.5661 226.3
Dec-2013 84.7464 227.4
Jan-2014 85.5269 224.9
Feb-2014 85.6968 227.1
Mar-2014 85.6206 241.0
Apr-2014 85.1966 257.9
May-2014 84.8808 255.4
Jun-2014 84.9584 250.3
Jul-2014 84.7193 212.6
Aug-2014 85.3542 196.2
Sep-2014 86.4823 180.9
Oct-2014 87.4385 164.1
Nov-2014 88.6746 175.4
Dec-2014 90.4614 177.6
Jan-2015 91.964 168.5
Feb-2015 93.1384 163.5
Mar-2015 94.8318 167.0
Apr-2015 93.8084 164.5
May-2015 93.1702 159.8
Jun-2015 93.959 164.4
Jul-2015 95.5444 176.4
Aug-2015 97.1718 169.5
Sep-2015 97.6601 151.3
Oct-2015 96.7364 152.9
Nov-2015 98.2176 144.8
Dec-2015 98.9911 146.7
Jan-2016 101.1672 147.9
Feb-2016 99.8781 145.6
Mar-2016 97.8761 150.0
Apr-2016 96.433 156.7
May-2016 97.495 180.2
Jun-2016 97.9256 195.7
Jul-2016 98.4625 186.0
Aug-2016 97.6919 170.2
Sep-2016 98.3665 161.4
Oct-2016 99.2993 158.0
Nov-2016 101.6476 163.4
Dec-2016 103.3297 170.8
Jan-2017 103.0893 168.4
Feb-2017 101.779 173.1
Mar-2017 101.0801 164.5
Apr-2017 100.0849 154.8
May-2017 99.5332 161.3
Jun-2017 98.2288 155.4
Jul-2017 96.7998 171.9
Aug-2017 95.8465 153.7
Sep-2017 95.1008 157.7
Oct-2017 96.6601 158.2
Nov-2017 96.8122 159.9
Dec-2017 96.4675 161.9
Jan-2018 94.3155 159.7
Feb-2018 94.7214 168.5
Mar-2018 95.0048 172.9
Apr-2018 94.999 174.8
May-2018 97.5243 169.5
Jun-2018 99.0216 159.0
Jul-2018 99.3349 143.3
Aug-2018 100.2812 143.1
Sep-2018 100.2619 131.5
Oct-2018 100.9126 136.8
Nov-2018 101.9838 140.8
Dec-2018 102.0031 148.4
Jan-2019 100.4012 143.6
Feb-2019 100.403 148.6
Mar-2019 100.7722 144.8
Apr-2019 100.7457 145.8
May-2019 101.6032 134.0
Jun-2019 101.1344 140.4
Jul-2019 100.9148 146.4
Aug-2019 102.8088 144.5
Sep-2019 102.7664 141.6
Oct-2019 102.2026 153.6
Nov-2019 101.9538 152.2
Dec-2019 101.4637 151.8
Jan-2020 100.8096 158.5
Feb-2020 102.0839 149.5
Mar-2020 105.8784 148.2
Apr-2020 107.4852 143.7
May-2020 107.0985 144.2

 

Note: The Real Broad Dollar index (Goods only) was extrapolated to May 2020 using the percentage change Real Broad Dollar index (Goods and Services) for each corresponding month.

Source: Author’s analysis of Federal Reserve, Nominal/Real Indexes, [Foreign Exchange Rates - H.10] Real Broad Dollar Index—Monthly Index and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index (PPI) commodity price series data.

View the underlying data on epi.org.