Effect of a $1 increase in hourly wages on incidence of receipt and value of public assistance benefits, by wage decile group

Bottom two wage deciles ($6.50 to $9.91) Bottom three wage deciles ($6.50 to $12.16)
Coefficient on real hourly wages β S.E.   T value P > |t| N Adj-R2 Coefficient on real hourly wages β S.E.   T value P > |t| N Adj-R2
Effect on share of workers receiving benefits
Any aid -0.038 0.004 -10.716 0.000 16,075 0.233 -0.031 0.002 -18.930 0.000 30,853 0.261
Food stamps (SNAP) -0.020 0.003 -6.483 0.000 16,075 0.161 -0.019 0.001 -13.744 0.000 30,853 0.155
Energy assistance (LIHEAP) -0.004 0.001 -2.648 0.008 16,075 0.041 -0.004 0.001 -6.600 0.000 30,853 0.039
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) -0.041 0.004 -11.587 0.000 16,075 0.236 -0.032 0.002 -19.580 0.000 30,853 0.266
Refundable Child Tax Credit (CTC) -0.009 0.003 -2.861 0.004 16,075 0.428 -0.008 0.001 -5.874 0.000 30,853 0.432
Supplemental Nutrition for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) -0.001 0.001 -1.111 0.267 16,075 0.067 -0.002 0.001 -3.897 0.000 30,853 0.060
Housing assistance -0.003 0.001 -2.572 0.010 16,075 0.036 -0.003 0.001 -5.276 0.000 30,853 0.037
Medicaid -0.013 0.003 -4.785 0.000 16,075 0.117 -0.010 0.001 -8.403 0.000 30,853 0.112
TANF/cash assistance -0.001 0.001 -0.645 0.519 16,075 0.046 -0.001 0.000 -3.137 0.002 30,853 0.035
Change in annual benefit dollars (per person)
All government assistance -199.485 28.563 -6.984 0.000 16,075 0.470 -189.501 12.292 -15.416 0.000 30,853 0.468
Food stamps (SNAP) -93.450 16.063 -5.818 0.000 16,075 0.226 -82.815 6.854 -12.083 0.000 30,853 0.211
Energy assistance (LIHEAP) -2.450 0.785 -3.123 0.002 16,075 0.032 -2.212 0.331 -6.687 0.000 30,853 0.027
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) -75.683 13.197 -5.735 0.000 16,075 0.469 -79.561 5.772 -13.784 0.000 30,853 0.465
Refundable Child Tax Credit (CTC) -1.924 5.303 -0.363 0.717 16,075 0.573 -12.816 2.410 -5.317 0.000 30,853 0.578
Supplemental Nutrition for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) -3.965 2.387 -1.661 0.097 16,075 0.075 -3.692 1.014 -3.641 0.000 30,853 0.074
Housing assistance -13.657 6.253 -2.184 0.029 16,075 0.036 -8.869 2.703 -3.281 0.001 30,853 0.037
TANF/cash assistance -7.600 6.827 -1.113 0.266 16,075 0.022 -10.282 2.498 -4.116 0.000 30,853 0.019
Third and fourth wage deciles ($12.16 to $14.72) Third, fourth, and fifth wage deciles ($12.16 to $17.62)
Coefficient on real hourly wages β S.E.   T value P > |t| N Adj-R2 Coefficient on real hourly wages β S.E.   T value P > |t| N Adj-R2
Effect on share of workers receiving benefits
Any aid -0.018 0.002 -11.073 0.000 32,634 0.275 -0.0163 0.001 -19.957 0.000 51,625 0.275
Food stamps (SNAP) -0.014 0.001 -11.739 0.000 32,634 0.131 -0.0120 0.001 -20.784 0.000 51,625 0.121
Energy assistance (LIHEAP) -0.002 0.001 -4.546 0.000 32,634 0.029 -0.0024 0.000 -9.645 0.000 51,625 0.026
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) -0.016 0.002 -9.836 0.000 32,634 0.282 -0.0151 0.001 -18.427 0.000 51,625 0.280
Refundable Child Tax Credit (CTC) -0.019 0.001 -14.194 0.000 32,634 0.426 -0.0189 0.001 -27.945 0.000 51,625 0.421
Supplemental Nutrition for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) -0.001 0.000 -1.175 0.240 32,634 0.047 -0.0008 0.000 -3.678 0.000 51,625 0.041
Housing assistance -0.003 0.000 -6.217 0.000 32,634 0.029 -0.0018 0.000 -9.911 0.000 51,625 0.025
Medicaid -0.009 0.001 -7.849 0.000 32,634 0.095 -0.0074 0.001 -13.586 0.000 51,625 0.089
TANF/cash assistance -0.001 0.000 -1.857 0.063 32,634 0.018 -0.0008 0.000 -4.327 0.000 51,625 0.016
Change in annual benefit dollars (per person)
All government assistance -174.672 10.798 -16.176 0.000 32,634 0.427 -159.6850 5.202 -30.695 0.000 51,625 0.394
Food stamps (SNAP) -58.148 5.918 -9.825 0.000 32,634 0.154 -45.5467 2.820 -16.153 0.000 51,625 0.132
Energy assistance (LIHEAP) -0.567 0.287 -1.976 0.048 32,634 0.019 -0.8321 0.132 -6.291 0.000 51,625 0.018
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) -96.931 5.169 -18.753 0.000 32,634 0.436 -97.4068 2.489 -39.127 0.000 51,625 0.408
Refundable Child Tax Credit (CTC) -27.922 2.424 -11.518 0.000 32,634 0.565 -27.9268 1.250 -22.334 0.000 51,625 0.532
Supplemental Nutrition for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) 0.616 0.934 0.660 0.510 32,634 0.076 -0.9525 0.464 -2.052 0.040 51,625 0.071
Housing assistance -11.504 2.037 -5.649 0.000 32,634 0.028 -7.7975 0.904 -8.626 0.000 51,625 0.023
TANF/cash assistance 2.403 1.957 1.228 0.219 32,634 0.013 -1.1293 0.965 -1.171 0.242 51,625 0.011

Note: Sample contains all wage earners who worked in the previous year with imputed hourly wage values in the noted range. In the lowest wage decile, there is a lower bound for valid wage values of $6.50 (90 percent of $7.25) to allow for some measurement error in imputed wage values near the federal minimum wage. All models include controls for age, age squared, age cubed, sex, race, worked part time at any point during the previous year, marital status, family size, presence of a disabled person in the household, number of children under 18, citizenship, metropolitan status, state, major industry, and major occupation category. Coefficent values are significant at *P<0.1, **P<0.05, ***P<0.01.

Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement microdata, pooled years 2012–2014

View the underlying data on epi.org.