The poverty rate would have dropped to zero without rising inequality: Supplemental poverty rate, actual and simulated, 1967–2017
| Year | Simulated | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| 1967 | 23.3% | 25.0% |
| 1968 | 22.4% | 23.2% |
| 1969 | 21.9% | 21.8% |
| 1970 | 22.1% | 21.6% |
| 1971 | 21.6% | 21.5% |
| 1972 | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| 1973 | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| 1974 | 19.8% | 19.6% |
| 1975 | 20.1% | 18.9% |
| 1976 | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| 1977 | 18.0% | 18.2% |
| 1978 | 16.8% | 17.4% |
| 1979 | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| 1980 | 16.6% | 18.7% |
| 1981 | 16.1% | 19.9% |
| 1982 | 17.0% | 21.0% |
| 1983 | 15.9% | 21.5% |
| 1984 | 14.0% | 20.4% |
| 1985 | 12.9% | 20.1% |
| 1986 | 12.1% | 19.4% |
| 1987 | 11.2% | 18.2% |
| 1988 | 10.1% | 18.2% |
| 1989 | 9.1% | 17.8% |
| 1990 | 8.8% | 18.4% |
| 1991 | 9.4% | 18.7% |
| 1992 | 8.6% | 19.1% |
| 1993 | 8.0% | 20.2% |
| 1994 | 7.0% | 18.7% |
| 1995 | 6.4% | 17.2% |
| 1996 | 5.4% | 17.1% |
| 1997 | 4.1% | 16.4% |
| 1998 | 2.7% | 15.3% |
| 1999 | 1.1% | 14.6% |
| 2000 | -0.2% | 14.1% |
| 2001 | 14.6% | |
| 2002 | 14.6% | |
| 2003 | 14.8% | |
| 2004 | 14.6% | |
| 2005 | 14.6% | |
| 2006 | 14.6% | |
| 2007 | 14.8% | |
| 2008 | 14.6% | |
| 2009 | 14.6% | |
| 2010 | 15.3% | |
| 2011 | 15.4% | |
| 2012 | 16.0% | |
| 2013 | 16.1% | |
| 2014 | 15.9% | |
| 2015 | 14.8% | |
| 2016 | 14.2% | |
| 2017 | 13.9% |
Notes: Simulated supplemental poverty rate is based on a model of the statistical relationship between growth in per capita GDP and poverty that prevailed between 1967 and 1979. In the model, the Supplemental Poverty Measure is anchored to 2012 poverty thresholds, allowing for changes in poverty trends to be explained by changes in income and net transfer payments. See Fox et al. 2014 in the source line for technical detail.
Source: Analysis by Elise Gould and Daniel Perez of the Economic Policy Institute of Liana Fox et al., “Waging War on Poverty: Historical Trends in Poverty Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 19789, January 2014, https://doi.org/10.3386/w19789; Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) National Income Product Accounts (NIPA) [Table 7.1]; and Columbia Population Research Center, Historical Supplemental Poverty Measure Data [Table]. Analysis using methodology from Danziger and Gottschalk, America Unequal (Harvard Univ. Press, 1995).