Relationship between the probability that a worker experiences labor market churn (in a given month and for three consecutive months) and the worker's predicted wage
| realwage | churn | Experiencing churn in a given month | Experiencing churn every month for 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.480884 | 9.7901% | ||
| 9.187807 | 10.5088% | ||
| 10.47396 | 9.3662% | ||
| 11.63589 | 8.1423% | ||
| 12.68453 | 6.9709% | ||
| 13.64466 | 5.9325% | ||
| 14.48068 | 5.2303% | ||
| 15.2132 | 4.8484% | ||
| 15.89337 | 4.6669% | ||
| 16.61739 | 4.5671% | ||
| 17.37792 | 4.4482% | ||
| 18.19302 | 4.1060% | ||
| 19.06374 | 4.0023% | ||
| 20.04742 | 3.7575% | ||
| 21.32327 | 3.6075% | ||
| 22.96903 | 3.5500% | ||
| 25.00872 | 3.5918% | ||
| 27.62886 | 3.2848% | ||
| 30.61915 | 2.7366% | ||
| 35.92942 | 2.1860% | ||
| 7.480884 | 21.9102% | ||
| 9.187807 | 23.4950% | ||
| 10.47396 | 20.8331% | ||
| 11.63589 | 18.1116% | ||
| 12.68453 | 15.4632% | ||
| 13.64466 | 13.1537% | ||
| 14.48068 | 11.5970% | ||
| 15.2132 | 10.7341% | ||
| 15.89337 | 10.3792% | ||
| 16.61739 | 10.1731% | ||
| 17.37792 | 9.8683% | ||
| 18.19302 | 9.1003% | ||
| 19.06374 | 8.8977% | ||
| 20.04742 | 8.3930% | ||
| 21.32327 | 8.0474% | ||
| 22.96903 | 7.9163% | ||
| 25.00872 | 7.9330% | ||
| 27.62886 | 7.2738% | ||
| 30.61915 | 6.0991% | ||
| 35.92942 | 4.8904% |
Notes: Churn is a transition from employment to nonemployment or nonemployment to employment in a given month. The real wage is predicted by demographic characteristics.
Source: Real wage bins and churn rates derive calculated from monthly linked observations in the CPS, 1998–2016