Hitting Trump administration GDP forecasts would require historically fast productivity growth, especially if net immigration slows
| Year | Real GDP growth |
|---|---|
| CBO productivity forecast, 2025 to 2035 | 1.38% |
| Implied OMB forecast given GDP projections | 2.34% |
| Necessary productivity growth to hit OMB GDP projection if net immigration was halved | 2.76% |
| Necessary productivity growth to hit OMB GDP projection if net immigration was zero | 2.92% |
| Productivity average over business cycles since 1969 | 1.66% |
| Maximum productivity growth over any business cycle since 1969 (2000–2007) | 2.36% |
Note: The historical averages and maximum refer to average productivity growth over all business cycles that occurred between 1969 and 2024.
Source: Author’s analysis based on CBO (2025a, 2025b, OMB 2025, and data on real GDP from the National Income and Product Accounts of the Bureau of Economic Analysis and aggregate hours data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2025b).