Wage growth 15 months after COVID-19 shock is not that strong
| Great recession | 2001 | COVID shock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 1 | 91.4 | 99.4 | 95.3 |
| 2 | 91.4 | 95.6 | 89.9 |
| 3 | 93.8 | 97.5 | 95.3 |
| 4 | 96.1 | 95.6 | 103.5 |
| 5 | 96.1 | 97.5 | 106.2 |
| 6 | 96.1 | 93.8 | 95.3 |
| 7 | 96.1 | 93.8 | 95.3 |
| 8 | 93.8 | 93.8 | 95.3 |
| 9 | 93.8 | 93.8 | 100.8 |
| 10 | 93.8 | 91.9 | 92.6 |
| 11 | 93.8 | 88.1 | 92.6 |
| 12 | 89.1 | 86.3 | 92.6 |
| 13 | 86.7 | 80.6 | 92.6 |
| 14 | 79.7 | 82.5 | 87.2 |
| 15 | 77.3 | 78.8 | 81.7 |
Notes: The average wage growth of the last six months before the previous business cycle peak is set to 100. Wage growth for the next 15 months is expressed as a share of this pre-recession pace. This method of calculating the deceleration normalizes the decline in wage growth by the baseline path that existed before the shock.
Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Wage Growth Tracker.