Projected GDP growth: Pre-coronavirus trend and Goldman Sachs forecast
| Date | Pre-coronavirus growth | Projected (post) coronavirus growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-Q4 | 100 | 100 |
| 2020-Q1 | 100.4963 | 97.6698 |
| 2020-Q2 | 100.995 | 88.0332 |
| 2020-Q3 | 101.4963 | 91.946 |
| 2020-Q4 | 102 | 94.5883 |
| 2021-Q1 | 102.5062 | 96.3141 |
| 2021-Q2 | 103.015 | 97.7274 |
| 2021-Q3 | 103.5262 | 98.9267 |
| 2021-Q4 | 104.04 | 99.6604 |
Note: Pre-coronavirus trend assumes 2% growth in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, a rate consistent with long-run trends in productivity growth (1.5%) and projected growth in the labor force (0.5%).
Source: Author’s analysis using data from Goldman Sachs U.S. Economics Analyst newsletter (not publicly available)