Fiscal support needs to be big and long-lasting: Forecasts of actual GDP with no stimulus, short-lived stimulus, and long-lived stimulus, 2019–2025
| Date | GDP with no stimulus | GDP with long-lived stimulus | GDP with short-lived stimulus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-01 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| 2020-01-01 | 99.13 | 99.13 | 99.13 |
| 2020-04-01 | 88.57 | 88.57 | 88.57 |
| 2020-07-01 | 92.42 | 92.42 | 92.42 |
| 2020-10-01 | 94.29 | 95.69 | 95.69 |
| 2021-01-01 | 95.85 | 98.64 | 98.64 |
| 2021-04-01 | 97.38 | 101.55 | 101.55 |
| 2021-07-01 | 99.01 | 104.33 | 104.33 |
| 2021-10-01 | 100.10 | 106.58 | 106.58 |
| 2022-01-01 | 101.10 | 108.76 | 108.76 |
| 2022-04-01 | 102.09 | 109.78 | 109.78 |
| 2022-07-01 | 103.12 | 109.89 | 109.43 |
| 2022-10-01 | 104.17 | 110.01 | 109.09 |
| 2023-01-01 | 105.22 | 110.14 | 108.76 |
| 2023-04-01 | 106.23 | 110.46 | 108.62 |
| 2023-07-01 | 107.32 | 110.94 | 108.64 |
| 2023-10-01 | 108.46 | 111.18 | 108.46 |
| 2024-01-01 | 109.66 | 112.31 | 109.66 |
| 2024-04-01 | 110.85 | 113.38 | 110.85 |
| 2024-07-01 | 112.02 | 114.40 | 112.02 |
| 2024-10-01 | 113.21 | 115.40 | 113.21 |
| 2025-01-01 | 114.46 | 116.42 | 114.46 |
| 2025-04-01 | 115.73 | 117.45 | 115.73 |
| 2025-07-01 | 117.01 | 118.50 | 117.01 |
| 2025-10-01 | 118.29 | 119.56 | 118.29 |
Note: The forecast of actual GDP with no stimulus is from CBO. Construction of stimulus effects is described in Appendix A.
Source: Author’s analysis of data from CBO 2020b.