It is far too soon to assume COVID-19 shock has permanently scarred U.S. growth: Forecasts for actual GDP and potential GDP (in January and July 2020), 2019–2025
| Date | Potential GDP (January 2020 forecast) | Potential GDP (July 2020 forecast) | Actual GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-01 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2020-01-01 | 101.0 | 100.9 | 99.1 |
| 2020-04-01 | 101.9 | 100.7 | 88.6 |
| 2020-07-01 | 103.0 | 101.4 | 92.4 |
| 2020-10-01 | 104.0 | 101.8 | 94.3 |
| 2021-01-01 | 105.1 | 102.3 | 95.9 |
| 2021-04-01 | 106.2 | 103.0 | 97.4 |
| 2021-07-01 | 107.3 | 103.8 | 99.0 |
| 2021-10-01 | 108.4 | 104.7 | 100.1 |
| 2022-01-01 | 109.5 | 105.5 | 101.1 |
| 2022-04-01 | 110.6 | 106.5 | 102.1 |
| 2022-07-01 | 111.7 | 107.5 | 103.1 |
| 2022-10-01 | 112.8 | 108.4 | 104.2 |
| 2023-01-01 | 113.9 | 109.4 | 105.2 |
| 2023-04-01 | 115.1 | 110.5 | 106.2 |
| 2023-07-01 | 116.2 | 111.5 | 107.3 |
| 2023-10-01 | 117.4 | 112.6 | 108.5 |
| 2024-01-01 | 118.5 | 113.6 | 109.7 |
| 2024-04-01 | 119.7 | 114.8 | 110.8 |
| 2024-07-01 | 120.8 | 115.9 | 112.0 |
| 2024-10-01 | 122.0 | 117.0 | 113.2 |
| 2025-01-01 | 123.2 | 118.1 | 114.5 |
| 2025-04-01 | 124.3 | 119.3 | 115.7 |
| 2025-07-01 | 125.5 | 120.4 | 117.0 |
| 2025-10-01 | 126.7 | 121.6 | 118.3 |
Source: Data from Congressional Budget Office (2020a, 2020b).