Housing disinflation follows industry measures with a long—but reliable—lag: Case-Shiller index of home prices and the shelter component of the Consumer Price Index lagged one year, 1980–2022

date Case-Shller index Consumer Price Index
1980-01-01 12.8% 13.7%
1980-02-01 12.1% 12.4%
1980-03-01 11.6% 11.0%
1980-04-01 11.1% 10.1%
1980-05-01 10.5% 10.1%
1980-06-01 9.8% 9.2%
1980-07-01 9.3% 12.5%
1980-08-01 8.9% 13.6%
1980-09-01 8.5% 14.5%
1980-10-01 7.9% 12.5%
1980-11-01 7.6% 11.0%
1980-12-01 7.4% 9.9%
1981-01-01 7.2% 9.4%
1981-02-01 7.0% 9.7%
1981-03-01 6.7% 8.7%
1981-04-01 6.7% 9.2%
1981-05-01 6.7% 9.3%
1981-06-01 6.7% 9.0%
1981-07-01 6.5% 7.7%
1981-08-01 6.4% 6.9%
1981-09-01 6.1% 4.8%
1981-10-01 5.8% 4.9%
1981-11-01 5.4% 4.1%
1981-12-01 5.1% 2.3%
1982-01-01 4.8% 3.0%
1982-02-01 4.6% 3.0%
1982-03-01 3.9% 3.6%
1982-04-01 3.1% 3.3%
1982-05-01 2.5% 2.0%
1982-06-01 1.9% 1.0%
1982-07-01 1.3% 0.9%
1982-08-01 0.8% 0.7%
1982-09-01 0.6% 1.7%
1982-10-01 0.5% 1.9%
1982-11-01 0.5% 2.9%
1982-12-01 0.6% 4.8%
1983-01-01 0.8% 4.3%
1983-02-01 1.2% 4.4%
1983-03-01 1.7% 4.8%
1983-04-01 2.1% 4.7%
1983-05-01 2.4% 4.6%
1983-06-01 3.0% 4.6%
1983-07-01 3.6% 4.9%
1983-08-01 4.1% 5.1%
1983-09-01 4.3% 5.0%
1983-10-01 4.5% 5.2%
1983-11-01 4.6% 5.1%
1983-12-01 4.7% 5.2%
1984-01-01 4.7% 5.2%
1984-02-01 4.5% 5.5%
1984-03-01 4.5% 5.4%
1984-04-01 4.6% 5.0%
1984-05-01 4.7% 5.8%
1984-06-01 4.8% 5.8%
1984-07-01 4.8% 5.6%
1984-08-01 4.8% 5.8%
1984-09-01 4.9% 5.6%
1984-10-01 4.9% 5.7%
1984-11-01 4.7% 6.1%
1984-12-01 4.7% 5.9%
1985-01-01 4.7% 6.1%
1985-02-01 4.9% 5.7%
1985-03-01 5.0% 6.0%
1985-04-01 5.1% 6.4%
1985-05-01 5.3% 5.5%
1985-06-01 5.4% 5.5%
1985-07-01 5.6% 5.3%
1985-08-01 5.8% 5.0%
1985-09-01 6.2% 5.3%
1985-10-01 6.6% 5.4%
1985-11-01 7.1% 4.9%
1985-12-01 7.5% 4.8%
1986-01-01 7.7% 4.8%
1986-02-01 7.9% 4.9%
1986-03-01 8.1% 4.5%
1986-04-01 8.4% 4.6%
1986-05-01 8.6% 4.8%
1986-06-01 8.8% 4.7%
1986-07-01 9.1% 4.5%
1986-08-01 9.3% 4.8%
1986-09-01 9.4% 4.7%
1986-10-01 9.4% 4.8%
1986-11-01 9.4% 4.8%
1986-12-01 9.6% 5.1%
1987-01-01 9.6% 5.1%
1987-02-01 9.6% 5.0%
1987-03-01 9.4% 5.0%
1987-04-01 9.2% 4.7%
1987-05-01 9.2% 4.6%
1987-06-01 9.2% 4.8%
1987-07-01 9.0% 5.0%
1987-08-01 8.9% 4.8%
1987-09-01 8.6% 4.8%
1987-10-01 8.5% 4.5%
1987-11-01 8.3% 4.7%
1987-12-01 7.8% 4.4%
1988-01-01 7.6% 4.2%
1988-02-01 7.5% 4.2%
1988-03-01 7.5% 4.4%
1988-04-01 7.4% 4.3%
1988-05-01 7.4% 4.5%
1988-06-01 7.3% 4.4%
1988-07-01 7.3% 4.7%
1988-08-01 7.3% 4.6%
1988-09-01 7.3% 4.4%
1988-10-01 7.2% 4.8%
1988-11-01 7.3% 4.8%
1988-12-01 7.2% 4.9%
1989-01-01 7.3% 5.0%
1989-02-01 7.3% 4.8%
1989-03-01 7.3% 5.0%
1989-04-01 7.3% 5.2%
1989-05-01 6.9% 5.0%
1989-06-01 6.5% 5.4%
1989-07-01 6.1% 5.6%
1989-08-01 5.7% 6.1%
1989-09-01 5.3% 6.1%
1989-10-01 5.0% 5.6%
1989-11-01 4.7% 5.3%
1989-12-01 4.4% 5.3%
1990-01-01 4.0% 5.8%
1990-02-01 3.5% 5.8%
1990-03-01 3.2% 5.2%
1990-04-01 2.9% 5.1%
1990-05-01 2.7% 5.1%
1990-06-01 2.4% 4.5%
1990-07-01 2.0% 4.1%
1990-08-01 1.6% 3.5%
1990-09-01 1.1% 3.6%
1990-10-01 0.5% 3.7%
1990-11-01 -0.2% 3.9%
1990-12-01 -0.7% 4.0%
1991-01-01 -1.3% 3.6%
1991-02-01 -1.7% 3.5%
1991-03-01 -2.1% 3.6%
1991-04-01 -2.2% 3.4%
1991-05-01 -2.0% 3.4%
1991-06-01 -1.6% 3.6%
1991-07-01 -1.3% 3.4%
1991-08-01 -1.1% 3.4%
1991-09-01 -0.8% 3.1%
1991-10-01 -0.8% 3.2%
1991-11-01 -0.5% 3.2%
1991-12-01 -0.2% 2.9%
1992-01-01 0.2% 2.9%
1992-02-01 0.5% 3.0%
1992-03-01 0.9% 2.9%
1992-04-01 1.0% 3.2%
1992-05-01 0.8% 3.1%
1992-06-01 0.5% 3.1%
1992-07-01 0.2% 3.0%
1992-08-01 0.2% 3.0%
1992-09-01 0.1% 3.1%
1992-10-01 0.4% 2.9%
1992-11-01 0.7% 2.9%
1992-12-01 0.8% 3.0%
1993-01-01 0.9% 2.9%
1993-02-01 0.9% 3.0%
1993-03-01 0.8% 3.3%
1993-04-01 0.8% 2.9%
1993-05-01 0.8% 3.0%
1993-06-01 1.2% 2.8%
1993-07-01 1.5% 2.9%
1993-08-01 1.8% 3.2%
1993-09-01 2.0% 3.3%
1993-10-01 2.0% 3.3%
1993-11-01 2.1% 3.4%
1993-12-01 2.1% 3.0%
1994-01-01 2.4% 3.1%
1994-02-01 2.5% 3.0%
1994-03-01 2.6% 2.9%
1994-04-01 2.7% 3.1%
1994-05-01 2.8% 3.3%
1994-06-01 2.8% 3.4%
1994-07-01 2.8% 3.5%
1994-08-01 2.8% 3.2%
1994-09-01 2.7% 3.3%
1994-10-01 2.7% 3.3%
1994-11-01 2.6% 3.3%
1994-12-01 2.5% 3.5%
1995-01-01 2.3% 3.4%
1995-02-01 2.3% 3.4%
1995-03-01 2.2% 3.4%
1995-04-01 2.1% 3.3%
1995-05-01 1.9% 3.2%
1995-06-01 1.7% 3.1%
1995-07-01 1.7% 3.3%
1995-08-01 1.7% 3.3%
1995-09-01 1.7% 3.1%
1995-10-01 1.8% 3.0%
1995-11-01 1.8% 3.0%
1995-12-01 1.8% 2.9%
1996-01-01 1.7% 3.0%
1996-02-01 1.8% 3.1%
1996-03-01 2.0% 2.9%
1996-04-01 2.2% 3.1%
1996-05-01 2.4% 3.1%
1996-06-01 2.4% 3.1%
1996-07-01 2.5% 3.0%
1996-08-01 2.4% 3.0%
1996-09-01 2.4% 3.1%
1996-10-01 2.3% 3.1%
1996-11-01 2.4% 3.1%
1996-12-01 2.4% 3.4%
1997-01-01 2.6% 3.2%
1997-02-01 2.7% 3.2%
1997-03-01 2.7% 3.3%
1997-04-01 2.7% 3.3%
1997-05-01 2.7% 3.3%
1997-06-01 2.8% 3.3%
1997-07-01 2.9% 3.2%
1997-08-01 3.0% 3.3%
1997-09-01 3.1% 3.4%
1997-10-01 3.3% 3.4%
1997-11-01 3.7% 3.4%
1997-12-01 4.0% 3.4%
1998-01-01 4.3% 3.2%
1998-02-01 4.5% 3.1%
1998-03-01 4.7% 3.0%
1998-04-01 5.0% 3.0%
1998-05-01 5.3% 2.9%
1998-06-01 5.6% 2.9%
1998-07-01 5.8% 3.0%
1998-08-01 6.1% 2.7%
1998-09-01 6.3% 2.7%
1998-10-01 6.5% 2.5%
1998-11-01 6.4% 2.5%
1998-12-01 6.4% 2.4%
1999-01-01 6.4% 3.0%
1999-02-01 6.4% 3.0%
1999-03-01 6.5% 3.2%
1999-04-01 6.6% 3.0%
1999-05-01 6.7% 3.1%
1999-06-01 6.8% 3.3%
1999-07-01 7.0% 3.3%
1999-08-01 7.1% 3.4%
1999-09-01 7.2% 3.3%
1999-10-01 7.4% 3.6%
1999-11-01 7.5% 3.5%
1999-12-01 7.7% 3.5%
2000-01-01 7.9% 3.3%
2000-02-01 8.2% 3.5%
2000-03-01 8.4% 3.5%
2000-04-01 8.6% 3.6%
2000-05-01 8.7% 3.7%
2000-06-01 8.8% 3.8%
2000-07-01 8.8% 3.8%
2000-08-01 8.8% 4.0%
2000-09-01 8.9% 3.7%
2000-10-01 9.0% 3.7%
2000-11-01 9.2% 3.9%
2000-12-01 9.3% 4.2%
2001-01-01 9.2% 4.2%
2001-02-01 9.0% 4.3%
2001-03-01 8.8% 4.0%
2001-04-01 8.5% 4.1%
2001-05-01 8.2% 3.9%
2001-06-01 8.0% 3.6%
2001-07-01 8.0% 3.6%
2001-08-01 8.0% 3.5%
2001-09-01 7.8% 3.7%
2001-10-01 7.4% 3.6%
2001-11-01 7.0% 3.4%
2001-12-01 6.7% 3.2%
2002-01-01 6.6% 3.1%
2002-02-01 6.6% 2.7%
2002-03-01 6.8% 2.5%
2002-04-01 7.2% 2.2%
2002-05-01 7.7% 2.5%
2002-06-01 8.0% 2.3%
2002-07-01 8.3% 2.4%
2002-08-01 8.5% 2.2%
2002-09-01 8.7% 2.2%
2002-10-01 9.0% 2.4%
2002-11-01 9.3% 2.2%
2002-12-01 9.6% 2.2%
2003-01-01 9.6% 2.1%
2003-02-01 9.8% 2.0%
2003-03-01 9.6% 2.6%
2003-04-01 9.5% 2.9%
2003-05-01 9.1% 2.8%
2003-06-01 8.9% 3.0%
2003-07-01 8.9% 2.9%
2003-08-01 9.0% 2.8%
2003-09-01 9.2% 3.0%
2003-10-01 9.4% 2.8%
2003-11-01 9.6% 2.7%
2003-12-01 9.8% 2.7%
2004-01-01 10.2% 2.7%
2004-02-01 10.7% 3.1%
2004-03-01 11.4% 3.1%
2004-04-01 12.0% 2.7%
2004-05-01 12.5% 2.4%
2004-06-01 13.0% 2.3%
2004-07-01 13.1% 2.4%
2004-08-01 13.1% 2.4%
2004-09-01 13.2% 1.9%
2004-10-01 13.3% 2.3%
2004-11-01 13.5% 2.5%
2004-12-01 13.6% 2.6%
2005-01-01 13.8% 2.6%
2005-02-01 14.0% 2.6%
2005-03-01 14.2% 2.5%
2005-04-01 14.2% 2.9%
2005-05-01 14.3% 3.2%
2005-06-01 14.3% 3.5%
2005-07-01 14.3% 3.6%
2005-08-01 14.4% 3.8%
2005-09-01 14.5% 4.2%
2005-10-01 14.4% 4.1%
2005-11-01 14.1% 4.1%
2005-12-01 13.5% 4.1%
2006-01-01 12.9% 4.3%
2006-02-01 12.1% 4.3%
2006-03-01 11.0% 4.0%
2006-04-01 10.0% 3.9%
2006-05-01 8.8% 3.7%
2006-06-01 7.3% 3.6%
2006-07-01 6.0% 3.5%
2006-08-01 4.8% 3.4%
2006-09-01 3.7% 3.4%
2006-10-01 3.0% 3.2%
2006-11-01 2.2% 3.2%
2006-12-01 1.7% 3.2%
2007-01-01 1.0% 3.1%
2007-02-01 0.5% 2.9%
2007-03-01 -0.3% 3.0%
2007-04-01 -0.8% 2.7%
2007-05-01 -1.4% 2.6%
2007-06-01 -1.6% 2.5%
2007-07-01 -2.0% 2.5%
2007-08-01 -2.3% 2.4%
2007-09-01 -2.8% 2.3%
2007-10-01 -3.5% 2.2%
2007-11-01 -4.6% 2.1%
2007-12-01 -5.4% 1.9%
2008-01-01 -6.4% 1.8%
2008-02-01 -7.3% 1.7%
2008-03-01 -7.8% 1.5%
2008-04-01 -8.1% 1.6%
2008-05-01 -8.2% 1.5%
2008-06-01 -8.3% 1.3%
2008-07-01 -8.4% 0.9%
2008-08-01 -8.9% 0.9%
2008-09-01 -9.6% 0.7%
2008-10-01 -10.3% 0.7%
2008-11-01 -10.9% 0.3%
2008-12-01 -12.0% 0.3%
2009-01-01 -12.7% -0.4%
2009-02-01 -12.7% -0.4%
2009-03-01 -12.7% -0.6%
2009-04-01 -12.2% -0.6%
2009-05-01 -11.3% -0.6%
2009-06-01 -10.1% -0.5%
2009-07-01 -9.0% -0.3%
2009-08-01 -8.3% -0.4%
2009-09-01 -7.6% -0.3%
2009-10-01 -6.6% -0.4%
2009-11-01 -5.2% -0.1%
2009-12-01 -3.9% 0.0%
2010-01-01 -2.9% 0.6%
2010-02-01 -3.1% 0.8%
2010-03-01 -2.0% 0.9%
2010-04-01 -1.0% 1.0%
2010-05-01 -0.8% 1.0%
2010-06-01 -1.4% 1.2%
2010-07-01 -2.1% 1.4%
2010-08-01 -2.8% 1.6%
2010-09-01 -3.4% 1.6%
2010-10-01 -3.7% 1.8%
2010-11-01 -4.1% 1.9%
2010-12-01 -4.1% 2.0%
2011-01-01 -4.1% 2.0%
2011-02-01 -3.7% 2.0%
2011-03-01 -4.0% 2.1%
2011-04-01 -4.3% 2.3%
2011-05-01 -4.3% 2.3%
2011-06-01 -3.9% 2.2%
2011-07-01 -3.5% 2.1%
2011-08-01 -3.2% 2.1%
2011-09-01 -3.1% 2.2%
2011-10-01 -3.3% 2.2%
2011-11-01 -3.6% 2.2%
2011-12-01 -3.9% 2.2%
2012-01-01 -3.5% 2.2%
2012-02-01 -2.7% 2.3%
2012-03-01 -1.4% 2.2%
2012-04-01 -0.5% 2.2%
2012-05-01 0.3% 2.3%
2012-06-01 0.9% 2.3%
2012-07-01 1.4% 2.4%
2012-08-01 2.1% 2.4%
2012-09-01 3.0% 2.4%
2012-10-01 4.0% 2.3%
2012-11-01 5.3% 2.4%
2012-12-01 6.4% 2.5%
2013-01-01 7.6% 2.6%
2013-02-01 8.3% 2.6%
2013-03-01 8.9% 2.7%
2013-04-01 9.0% 2.8%
2013-05-01 9.1% 2.8%
2013-06-01 9.3% 2.8%
2013-07-01 9.7% 2.9%
2013-08-01 10.2% 2.9%
2013-09-01 10.6% 2.9%
2013-10-01 10.8% 3.0%
2013-11-01 10.7% 3.0%
2013-12-01 10.7% 2.9%
2014-01-01 10.4% 2.9%
2014-02-01 10.1% 3.0%
2014-03-01 8.9% 3.0%
2014-04-01 7.9% 3.0%
2014-05-01 7.0% 2.9%
2014-06-01 6.3% 3.0%
2014-07-01 5.6% 3.1%
2014-08-01 5.1% 3.1%
2014-09-01 4.7% 3.2%
2014-10-01 4.6% 3.2%
2014-11-01 4.6% 3.2%
2014-12-01 4.5% 3.2%
2015-01-01 4.3% 3.3%
2015-02-01 4.2% 3.3%
2015-03-01 4.3% 3.2%
2015-04-01 4.3% 3.2%
2015-05-01 4.4% 3.4%
2015-06-01 4.4% 3.4%
2015-07-01 4.4% 3.3%
2015-08-01 4.5% 3.4%
2015-09-01 4.7% 3.4%
2015-10-01 4.9% 3.5%
2015-11-01 5.1% 3.6%
2015-12-01 5.2% 3.6%
2016-01-01 5.3% 3.5%
2016-02-01 5.2% 3.5%
2016-03-01 5.1% 3.5%
2016-04-01 5.0% 3.5%
2016-05-01 4.9% 3.3%
2016-06-01 4.9% 3.3%
2016-07-01 4.9% 3.2%
2016-08-01 5.0% 3.3%
2016-09-01 5.1% 3.2%
2016-10-01 5.1% 3.2%
2016-11-01 5.2% 3.1%
2016-12-01 5.3% 3.2%
2017-01-01 5.5% 3.2%
2017-02-01 5.6% 3.1%
2017-03-01 5.6% 3.3%
2017-04-01 5.6% 3.4%
2017-05-01 5.7% 3.5%
2017-06-01 5.7% 3.4%
2017-07-01 5.7% 3.5%
2017-08-01 5.8% 3.4%
2017-09-01 5.9% 3.3%
2017-10-01 6.0% 3.2%
2017-11-01 6.1% 3.3%
2017-12-01 6.2% 3.2%
2018-01-01 6.2% 3.2%
2018-02-01 6.4% 3.4%
2018-03-01 6.5% 3.4%
2018-04-01 6.4% 3.4%
2018-05-01 6.3% 3.3%
2018-06-01 6.1% 3.5%
2018-07-01 5.9% 3.5%
2018-08-01 5.7% 3.4%
2018-09-01 5.4% 3.5%
2018-10-01 5.3% 3.4%
2018-11-01 4.9% 3.3%
2018-12-01 4.5% 3.2%
2019-01-01 4.1% 3.3%
2019-02-01 3.8% 3.3%
2019-03-01 3.6% 3.0%
2019-04-01 3.5% 2.6%
2019-05-01 3.4% 2.6%
2019-06-01 3.2% 2.4%
2019-07-01 3.1% 2.3%
2019-08-01 3.1% 2.3%
2019-09-01 3.2% 2.1%
2019-10-01 3.2% 2.0%
2019-11-01 3.4% 1.9%
2019-12-01 3.7% 1.8%
2020-01-01 4.0% 1.6%
2020-02-01 4.3% 1.4%
2020-03-01 4.6% 1.7%
2020-04-01 4.6% 2.1%
2020-05-01 4.4% 2.2%
2020-06-01 4.4% 2.6%
2020-07-01 4.8% 2.8%
2020-08-01 5.8% 2.8%
2020-09-01 7.0% 3.2%
2020-10-01 8.4% 3.5%
2020-11-01 9.5% 3.9%
2020-12-01 10.4% 4.2%
2021-01-01 11.3% 4.4%
2021-02-01 12.2% 4.8%
2021-03-01 13.5% 5.0%
2021-04-01 15.0% 5.1%
2021-05-01 16.9% 5.4%
2021-06-01 18.8% 5.6%
2021-07-01 19.8% 5.7%
2021-08-01 20.0%
2021-09-01 19.7%
2021-10-01 19.1%
2021-11-01 18.8%
2021-12-01 18.9%
2022-01-01 19.3%
2022-02-01 20.1%
2022-03-01 20.8%
2022-04-01 20.7%
2022-05-01 20.0%
2022-06-01 18.1%
2022-07-01 15.8%

Notes: The year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller index of home prices is lagged by one year and compared to the year-over-year change in the shelter component of the Consumer Price Index.  

Source: Author’s analysis based on data from Robert Shiller’s online data page and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

View the underlying data on epi.org.