Despite some wobbles, newest vintage of wage data shows clear deceleration: Change in three-month average hourly earnings (annualized rate), last four vintages of data
| Observation date | Dec. 2022 | Jan. 2023 | Feb. 2023 | Mar. 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-2021 | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.70% | 3.70% |
| May-2021 | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.30% |
| Jun-2021 | 4.70% | 4.70% | 4.90% | 4.90% |
| Jul-2021 | 5.70% | 5.70% | 5.70% | 5.70% |
| Aug-2021 | 6.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% |
| Sep-2021 | 5.70% | 5.70% | 5.80% | 5.80% |
| Oct-2021 | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.80% | 5.80% |
| Nov-2021 | 5.80% | 5.80% | 6.10% | 6.10% |
| Dec-2021 | 6.10% | 6.10% | 6.20% | 6.20% |
| Jan-2022 | 6.10% | 6.10% | 6.20% | 6.20% |
| Feb-2022 | 5.60% | 5.60% | 5.90% | 5.90% |
| Mar-2022 | 5.20% | 5.20% | 5.60% | 5.60% |
| Apr-2022 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.80% | 4.80% |
| May-2022 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.90% | 4.90% |
| Jun-2022 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.70% | 4.70% |
| Jul-2022 | 4.90% | 4.90% | 5.00% | 5.00% |
| Aug-2022 | 4.90% | 4.90% | 4.70% | 4.70% |
| Sep-2022 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 4.70% | 4.70% |
| Oct-2022 | 4.80% | 4.60% | 4.40% | 4.40% |
| Nov-2022 | 5.10% | 4.50% | 4.40% | 4.40% |
| Dec-2022 | 4.30% | 4.60% | 4.60% | |
| Jan-2023 | 4.80% | 4.60% | ||
| Feb-2023 | 4.30% |
Source: ALFRED database from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.