What overheating pursuant to American Rescue Plan spending would have looked like: Measures and projections of real and potential GDP ($billions)
| CBO est. of potential output in January 2021 | GDP in overheating scenario | Actual GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019Q4 | 19157.1 | 19215.7 | 19215.7 |
| 2020Q1 | 19250.2 | 18989.9 | 18989.9 |
| 2020Q2 | 19340.2 | 17378.7 | 17378.7 |
| 2020Q3 | 19424.2 | 18743.7 | 18743.7 |
| 2020Q4 | 19512 | 18924.3 | 18924.3 |
| 2021Q1 | 19602.5 | 19666.2 | 19216.2 |
| 2021Q2 | 19697.4 | 20116.2 | 19544.2 |
| 2021Q3 | 19795.8 | 20566.2 | 19672.6 |
| 2021Q4 | 19898.3 | 21016.2 | 20006.2 |
| 2022Q1 | 20003.7 | 21466.2 | 19924.1 |
| 2022Q2 | 20109.9 | 21916.2 | 19895.3 |
| 2022Q3 | 20216.1 | 22366.2 | 20021.7 |
Note: The green line takes the Congressional Budget Office (2021) forecast of actual GDP and assumes American Rescue Plan fiscal impulse translated 1:1 into higher GDP, per the concerns of some at the time.
Source: Data taken from Congressional Budget Office (2021) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA).