Positive 2021 output gap is unremarkable in recent history: Output gaps (% of GDP) since 1995, including adjusted output gap for 2021–2022
| Output gap, adjusted | Output gap, unadjusted | |
|---|---|---|
| 1995Q1 | -1.037442674 | |
| 1995Q2 | -1.417944987 | |
| 1995Q3 | -1.253764142 | |
| 1995Q4 | -1.267621768 | |
| 1996Q1 | -1.218840757 | |
| 1996Q2 | -0.30597483 | |
| 1996Q3 | -0.193508223 | |
| 1996Q4 | 0.015040705 | |
| 1997Q1 | -0.207254381 | |
| 1997Q2 | 0.541406779 | |
| 1997Q3 | 0.848909855 | |
| 1997Q4 | 0.740745752 | |
| 1998Q1 | 0.753957453 | |
| 1998Q2 | 0.671584645 | |
| 1998Q3 | 0.907080142 | |
| 1998Q4 | 1.498258603 | |
| 1999Q1 | 1.407574806 | |
| 1999Q2 | 1.205981182 | |
| 1999Q3 | 1.490939149 | |
| 1999Q4 | 2.09073296 | |
| 2000Q1 | 1.403664348 | |
| 2000Q2 | 2.213327853 | |
| 2000Q3 | 1.336220186 | |
| 2000Q4 | 1.013814946 | |
| 2001Q1 | -0.17651419 | |
| 2001Q2 | -0.367073431 | |
| 2001Q3 | -1.519140107 | |
| 2001Q4 | -1.953546467 | |
| 2002Q1 | -1.811436526 | |
| 2002Q2 | -1.851007007 | |
| 2002Q3 | -2.081713335 | |
| 2002Q4 | -2.564721809 | |
| 2003Q1 | -2.66607767 | |
| 2003Q2 | -2.404946463 | |
| 2003Q3 | -1.389227218 | |
| 2003Q4 | -0.86926817 | |
| 2004Q1 | -0.928038684 | |
| 2004Q2 | -0.789297985 | |
| 2004Q3 | -0.501182803 | |
| 2004Q4 | -0.136371387 | |
| 2005Q1 | 0.332489649 | |
| 2005Q2 | 0.200815071 | |
| 2005Q3 | 0.379377318 | |
| 2005Q4 | 0.356940212 | |
| 2006Q1 | 1.130602179 | |
| 2006Q2 | 0.814758487 | |
| 2006Q3 | 0.429248749 | |
| 2006Q4 | 0.762090719 | |
| 2007Q1 | 0.54801544 | |
| 2007Q2 | 0.678655708 | |
| 2007Q3 | 0.771103249 | |
| 2007Q4 | 0.876392638 | |
| 2008Q1 | -0.031770238 | |
| 2008Q2 | 0.062268994 | |
| 2008Q3 | -0.914045502 | |
| 2008Q4 | -3.486071828 | |
| 2009Q1 | -4.979094406 | |
| 2009Q2 | -5.479377457 | |
| 2009Q3 | -5.455786055 | |
| 2009Q4 | -4.755715265 | |
| 2010Q1 | -4.590521875 | |
| 2010Q2 | -3.987322966 | |
| 2010Q3 | -3.581543154 | |
| 2010Q4 | -3.429040795 | |
| 2011Q1 | -4.020298733 | |
| 2011Q2 | -3.742455073 | |
| 2011Q3 | -4.163170099 | |
| 2011Q4 | -3.483241686 | |
| 2012Q1 | -3.098823814 | |
| 2012Q2 | -3.072610555 | |
| 2012Q3 | -3.325044436 | |
| 2012Q4 | -3.645040485 | |
| 2013Q1 | -3.243102357 | |
| 2013Q2 | -3.545280881 | |
| 2013Q3 | -3.221571848 | |
| 2013Q4 | -2.978336665 | |
| 2014Q1 | -3.762823871 | |
| 2014Q2 | -2.977166383 | |
| 2014Q3 | -2.306752966 | |
| 2014Q4 | -2.329227621 | |
| 2015Q1 | -1.996928446 | |
| 2015Q2 | -1.889443822 | |
| 2015Q3 | -2.027380247 | |
| 2015Q4 | -2.329516612 | |
| 2016Q1 | -2.194154532 | |
| 2016Q2 | -2.33092847 | |
| 2016Q3 | -2.170039754 | |
| 2016Q4 | -2.106614267 | |
| 2017Q1 | -2.10915828 | |
| 2017Q2 | -2.03636394 | |
| 2017Q3 | -1.657360043 | |
| 2017Q4 | -1.111337256 | |
| 2018Q1 | -0.878552423 | |
| 2018Q2 | -0.650842836 | |
| 2018Q3 | -0.406639899 | |
| 2018Q4 | -0.697743417 | |
| 2019Q1 | -0.629675979 | |
| 2019Q2 | -0.434271331 | |
| 2019Q3 | -0.023450459 | |
| 2019Q4 | -0.051535901 | |
| 2020Q1 | -1.679857519 | -1.860602484 |
| 2020Q2 | -10.41743765 | -7.776585183 |
| 2020Q3 | -3.765909602 | -1.546344629 |
| 2020Q4 | -3.246589566 | 0.393500667 |
| 2021Q1 | -2.180082048 | 0.151483956 |
| 2021Q2 | -0.956479479 | 1.59083981 |
| 2021Q3 | -0.757843738 | 1.382575058 |
| 2021Q4 | 0.461432469 | 2.281207018 |
| 2022Q1 | -0.406699174 | -0.513727689 |
| 2022Q2 | -1.024362749 | 0.543082553 |
| 2022Q3 | -0.872460261 | 1.11867539 |
Sources: Data taken from Congressional Budget Office (2021) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA).