Output has likely not surged above its potential level post pandemic shock: Adjusted measures of potential GDP and actual GDP, both relative to pre-pandemic CBO forecasts
| Adjusted CBO est. of potential GDP, January 2020 | Actual GDP | |
|---|---|---|
| 2019Q4 | 100.0% | 99.9% |
| 2020Q1 | 100.8% | 98.3% |
| 2020Q2 | 97.7% | 89.4% |
| 2020Q3 | 98.2% | 95.9% |
| 2020Q4 | 96.7% | 96.3% |
| 2021Q1 | 98.0% | 97.3% |
| 2021Q2 | 97.7% | 98.5% |
| 2021Q3 | 98.1% | 98.8% |
| 2021Q4 | 98.4% | 100.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 100.2% | 99.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 98.6% | 98.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 98.2% | 98.9% |
Note: Adjustments to potential GDP as described in text.
Sources: The potential GDP baseline and GDP forecasts are taken from Congressional Budget Office (2021). Actual GDP is taken from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA).