Housing prices steadily rising and crowding out other consumption: Housing’s share of total consumption expenditures, actual and simulated under assumption of no excess housing price growth, 1954–2022
| Actual | House prices rising at “normal” pace | |
|---|---|---|
| 1954 | 12.3% | 12.3% |
| 1955 | 12.2% | 12.0% |
| 1956 | 12.4% | 12.3% |
| 1957 | 12.6% | 12.7% |
| 1958 | 13.1% | 13.2% |
| 1959 | 13.1% | 13.2% |
| 1960 | 13.5% | 13.6% |
| 1961 | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| 1962 | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| 1963 | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| 1964 | 13.9% | 14.1% |
| 1965 | 13.7% | 14.0% |
| 1966 | 13.4% | 13.9% |
| 1967 | 13.6% | 14.1% |
| 1968 | 13.3% | 14.1% |
| 1969 | 13.4% | 14.3% |
| 1970 | 13.5% | 14.6% |
| 1971 | 13.7% | 14.7% |
| 1972 | 13.6% | 14.6% |
| 1973 | 13.5% | 14.7% |
| 1974 | 13.5% | 15.7% |
| 1975 | 13.4% | 15.8% |
| 1976 | 13.2% | 15.4% |
| 1977 | 13.2% | 15.1% |
| 1978 | 13.3% | 15.2% |
| 1979 | 13.4% | 15.5% |
| 1980 | 13.8% | 16.2% |
| 1981 | 14.1% | 16.3% |
| 1982 | 14.4% | 16.2% |
| 1983 | 14.1% | 15.6% |
| 1984 | 14.1% | 15.4% |
| 1985 | 14.3% | 15.2% |
| 1986 | 14.7% | 15.0% |
| 1987 | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| 1988 | 14.8% | 14.7% |
| 1989 | 14.7% | 14.6% |
| 1990 | 14.8% | 14.7% |
| 1991 | 15.1% | 15.0% |
| 1992 | 14.9% | 14.9% |
| 1993 | 14.8% | 14.7% |
| 1994 | 14.8% | 14.6% |
| 1995 | 15.0% | 14.7% |
| 1996 | 15.0% | 14.4% |
| 1997 | 15.0% | 14.3% |
| 1998 | 15.0% | 13.9% |
| 1999 | 14.9% | 13.6% |
| 2000 | 14.7% | 13.3% |
| 2001 | 15.1% | 13.4% |
| 2002 | 15.2% | 13.0% |
| 2003 | 15.0% | 12.8% |
| 2004 | 14.9% | 12.7% |
| 2005 | 14.9% | 12.9% |
| 2006 | 14.9% | 12.7% |
| 2007 | 15.0% | 12.7% |
| 2008 | 15.5% | 13.1% |
| 2009 | 16.1% | 13.3% |
| 2010 | 15.9% | 13.4% |
| 2011 | 15.5% | 13.3% |
| 2012 | 15.4% | 13.1% |
| 2013 | 15.4% | 13.0% |
| 2014 | 15.3% | 12.7% |
| 2015 | 15.2% | 12.2% |
| 2016 | 15.3% | 11.9% |
| 2017 | 15.2% | 11.7% |
| 2018 | 15.1% | 11.4% |
| 2019 | 15.3% | 11.3% |
| 2020 | 16.2% | 11.7% |
| 2021 | 14.9% | 11.0% |
Notes: We back out an implied nonhousing price deflator for the PCE by using expenditure shares. We then only allow housing expenditures to grow at the rate of real growth plus the nonhousing price increases to get a counterfactual housing share.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA).