Estimated effects of proposed minimum-wage increase, fully phased-in, by state
| State | Total estimated workers1 | Directly affected2 | Indirectly affected3 | Total affected | Increased wages for directly and indirectly affected4 | GDP impact5 | Jobs impact: Full-time employment (job years)6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 129,359,000 | 21,267,000 | 8,997,000 | 30,264,000 | 51,490,800,296 | 32,593,676,587 | 140,000 |
| Alabama | 1,835,000 | 355,000 | 122,000 | 478,000 | $ 882,818,744 | $ 558,824,265 | 2,400 |
| Alaska | 303,000 | 33,000 | 16,000 | 48,000 | $ 72,578,109 | $ 45,941,943 | 200 |
| Arizona | 2,465,000 | 389,000 | 189,000 | 578,000 | $ 901,746,432 | $ 570,805,492 | 2,500 |
| Arkansas | 1,171,000 | 258,000 | 97,000 | 356,000 | $ 744,617,091 | $ 471,342,618 | 1,800 |
| California | 14,681,000 | 2,402,000 | 1,039,000 | 3,441,000 | $ 5,370,477,594 | $ 3,399,512,317 | 16,300 |
| Colorado | 2,194,000 | 288,000 | 124,000 | 412,000 | $ 684,527,456 | $ 433,305,880 | 1,800 |
| Connecticut | 1,563,000 | 181,000 | 95,000 | 276,000 | $ 341,187,298 | $ 215,971,560 | 1,100 |
| Delaware | 384,000 | 64,000 | 23,000 | 87,000 | $ 157,830,938 | $ 99,906,984 | 400 |
| District of Columbia | 313,000 | 22,000 | 14,000 | 36,000 | $ 58,289,640 | $ 36,897,342 | 200 |
| Florida | 7,706,000 | 1,219,000 | 617,000 | 1,835,000 | $ 3,044,695,392 | $ 1,927,292,183 | 8,400 |
| Georgia | 3,968,000 | 703,000 | 241,000 | 944,000 | $ 1,909,560,857 | $ 1,208,752,022 | 4,800 |
| Hawaii | 545,000 | 71,000 | 42,000 | 113,000 | $ 173,665,324 | $ 109,930,150 | 500 |
| Idaho | 622,000 | 123,000 | 42,000 | 165,000 | $ 290,590,335 | $ 183,943,682 | 800 |
| Illinois | 5,569,000 | 838,000 | 389,000 | 1,228,000 | $ 1,776,660,025 | $ 1,124,625,796 | 5,700 |
| Indiana | 2,740,000 | 479,000 | 208,000 | 687,000 | $ 1,148,106,315 | $ 726,751,297 | 3,000 |
| Iowa | 1,412,000 | 240,000 | 100,000 | 340,000 | $ 546,803,299 | $ 346,126,488 | 1,400 |
| Kansas | 1,265,000 | 219,000 | 93,000 | 312,000 | $ 537,034,044 | $ 339,942,550 | 1,400 |
| Kentucky | 1,772,000 | 336,000 | 144,000 | 480,000 | $ 862,964,264 | $ 546,256,379 | 2,200 |
| Louisiana | 1,760,000 | 356,000 | 128,000 | 484,000 | $ 966,067,358 | $ 611,520,637 | 2,400 |
| Maine | 566,000 | 96,000 | 37,000 | 133,000 | $ 206,269,168 | $ 130,568,383 | 600 |
| Maryland | 2,670,000 | 317,000 | 155,000 | 472,000 | $ 764,741,883 | $ 484,081,612 | 2,000 |
| Massachusetts | 2,947,000 | 329,000 | 185,000 | 514,000 | $ 620,563,700 | $ 392,816,822 | 1,900 |
| Michigan | 3,838,000 | 746,000 | 271,000 | 1,017,000 | $ 1,715,180,782 | $ 1,085,709,435 | 4,600 |
| Minnesota | 2,502,000 | 360,000 | 137,000 | 497,000 | $ 768,464,297 | $ 486,437,900 | 2,000 |
| Mississippi | 1,133,000 | 230,000 | 90,000 | 320,000 | $ 646,403,205 | $ 409,173,229 | 1,600 |
| Missouri | 2,537,000 | 456,000 | 157,000 | 613,000 | $ 1,101,957,751 | $ 697,539,256 | 2,800 |
| Montana | 398,000 | 83,000 | 29,000 | 112,000 | $ 193,251,811 | $ 122,328,396 | 500 |
| Nebraska | 875,000 | 145,000 | 58,000 | 203,000 | $ 329,511,371 | $ 208,580,698 | 900 |
| Nevada | 1,115,000 | 165,000 | 92,000 | 257,000 | $ 357,253,080 | $ 226,141,200 | 1,200 |
| New Hampshire | 629,000 | 80,000 | 38,000 | 118,000 | $ 156,942,704 | $ 99,344,731 | 400 |
| New Jersey | 3,844,000 | 501,000 | 228,000 | 729,000 | $ 1,259,407,858 | $ 797,205,174 | 3,400 |
| New Mexico | 789,000 | 141,000 | 52,000 | 193,000 | $ 355,974,908 | $ 225,332,117 | 900 |
| New York | 8,038,000 | 1,245,000 | 532,000 | 1,777,000 | $ 3,191,459,530 | $ 2,020,193,882 | 8,300 |
| North Carolina | 3,852,000 | 761,000 | 280,000 | 1,041,000 | $ 2,061,333,232 | $ 1,304,823,936 | 5,300 |
| North Dakota | 333,000 | 43,000 | 21,000 | 64,000 | $ 97,076,340 | $ 61,449,323 | 300 |
| Ohio | 4,864,000 | 943,000 | 327,000 | 1,271,000 | $ 2,143,766,168 | $ 1,357,003,984 | 5,800 |
| Oklahoma | 1,548,000 | 296,000 | 103,000 | 399,000 | $ 845,908,992 | $ 535,460,392 | 2,100 |
| Oregon | 1,550,000 | 185,000 | 116,000 | 301,000 | $ 291,808,085 | $ 184,714,518 | 1,100 |
| Pennsylvania | 5,527,000 | 855,000 | 375,000 | 1,229,000 | $ 1,890,954,037 | $ 1,196,973,906 | 5,000 |
| Rhode Island | 461,000 | 72,000 | 31,000 | 103,000 | $ 154,249,308 | $ 97,639,812 | 400 |
| South Carolina | 1,789,000 | 320,000 | 167,000 | 486,000 | $ 831,360,393 | $ 526,251,129 | 2,200 |
| South Dakota | 356,000 | 62,000 | 31,000 | 93,000 | $ 146,130,893 | $ 92,500,855 | 400 |
| Tennessee | 2,630,000 | 497,000 | 202,000 | 699,000 | $ 1,233,448,971 | $ 780,773,199 | 3,200 |
| Texas | 10,734,000 | 2,093,000 | 806,000 | 2,899,000 | $ 5,874,673,361 | $ 3,718,668,238 | 14,700 |
| Utah | 1,199,000 | 203,000 | 87,000 | 291,000 | $ 443,143,332 | $ 280,509,729 | 1,200 |
| Vermont | 292,000 | 36,000 | 21,000 | 56,000 | $ 61,603,921 | $ 38,995,282 | 200 |
| Virginia | 3,647,000 | 530,000 | 228,000 | 758,000 | $ 1,421,473,585 | $ 899,792,779 | 3,500 |
| Washington | 2,815,000 | 272,000 | 173,000 | 446,000 | $ 387,144,274 | $ 245,062,325 | 2,100 |
| West Virginia | 706,000 | 133,000 | 58,000 | 191,000 | $ 360,282,879 | $ 228,059,062 | 900 |
| Wisconsin | 2,645,000 | 461,000 | 172,000 | 633,000 | $ 1,019,777,821 | $ 645,519,361 | 2,700 |
| Wyoming | 256,000 | 35,000 | 15,000 | 50,000 | $ 89,062,140 | $ 56,376,335 | 200 |
1 Total estimated workers is estimated from the CPS respondents who were 16 years old or older, employed, and for whom either a valid hourly wage is reported or one can be imputed from weekly earnings and average weekly hours. Consequently, this estimate represents the identifiable wage-earning workforce and tends to understate the size of the full workforce.
2 Directly affected workers will see their wages rise, as the new minimum-wage rate will exceed their current hourly pay.
3 Indirectly affected workers currently have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage, and the new minimum wage plus the dollar amount of the increase over the preceding minimum wage). They will receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage.
4 The annual amount of increased wages for directly and indirectly affected workers assumes they work 52 weeks a year.
5 GDP and job impact figures utilize a national model to estimate the GDP impact of workers' increased earnings. Thus, the total state stimulus may be lower than this amount because workers in each state will not necessarily spend all of their increased earnings in-state. However, we can assume that most of the increased earnings will be spent in-state, and thus most of the jobs created will be in-state. GDP figures are cumulative three-year totals, job-impact figures are the jobs created or sustained in the final year of the increases.
6 The increased economic activity from these additional wages adds not just jobs but also hours for people who already have jobs (work hours for people with jobs also dropped in the downturn). Full-time employment takes that into account by essentially taking the number of total hours added (including both hours from new jobs and more hours for people who already have jobs) and dividing by 40, to get full-time-equivalent jobs added. Jobs numbers are job years following the third-year increase. Figures assume full-time employment requires $115,000 in additional GDP.
Note: Figures may not sum to total due to rounding. Job impact estimation methods can be found in Hall and Cooper (2012) and Bivens (2011).
Source: Authors' analysis of 2012 Harkin/Miller proposal using Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata
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