Budgetary effects of successfully navigating the fiscal obstacle course, 2013–2022 (deficit increases (+) or decreases (-), in billions of dollars)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013–2022
Current policy budget deficit -1,015 -877 -737 -742 -731 -758 -881 -972 -1,061 -1,214 -8,987
As a percent of GDP -6.4% -5.4% -4.2% -4.0% -3.7% -3.6% -4.0% -4.3% -4.5% -4.9% -4.5%
Job-creation provisions
Emergency Unemployment Compensation 35 48 49 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 144
Aid to state governments 38 43 33 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 120
Infrastructure investment 12 40 33 25 27 29 27 18 13 10 234
Investment in teachers and schools 30 16 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 55
Targeted tax rebate 40 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53
Net 154 160 120 48 27 29 27 18 13 10 606
Offsets
Upper-income Bush-era tax cuts and estate and gift tax cuts expire -47 -67 -97 -108 -121 -133 -144 -154 -165 -176 -1,212
Impact on primary budget deficit 108 93 24 -61 -94 -105 -117 -136 -152 -166 -606
Debt service 1 2 3 4 2 -1 -5 -10 -17 -24 -45
Net impact on budget deficit 108 95 27 -57 -92 -105 -122 -146 -168 -191 -651
Resulting budget deficit -1,123 -972 -764 -685 -640 -652 -759 -825 -892 -1,023 -8,336
As a percent of GDP -7.1% -5.9% -4.4% -3.7% -3.2% -3.1% -3.5% -3.6% -3.8% -4.1% -4.1%

Note: All policies are scored relative to EPI's current policy baseline (as detailed in the appendix). This table presents the impacts in fiscal years 2013–2022.

Source: Authors' analysis of Congressional Budget Office (2012b; 2012d), Department of Labor (2012), Joint Committee on Taxation (2010), and Office of Management and Budget (2012)

View the underlying data on epi.org.