Estimated effects of proposed federal minimum-wage increase, fully phased-in, by state

State Total estimated workers1 Directly affected2 Indirectly affected3 Total affected Increased wages for directly and indirectly affected4 GDP impact5 Jobs impact: full-time employment6
United States  127,361,000 19,485,000 8,869,000  28,354,000 $39,677,170,000 $25,115,649,000 103,000
Alabama  1,814,000  329,000  163,000  492,000  741,320,000  469,255,000  1,800
Alaska  310,000  30,000  17,000  47,000  65,320,000  41,348,000  200
Arizona  2,539,000  387,000  188,000  575,000  749,860,000  474,661,000  1,800
Arkansas  1,135,000  235,000  106,000  341,000  581,256,000  367,935,000  1,500
California  14,154,000  2,101,000  1,043,000  3,143,000  3,835,584,000  2,427,925,000  11,300
Colorado  2,220,000  305,000  115,000  420,000  614,186,000  388,780,000  1,700
Connecticut  1,564,000  153,000  79,000  232,000  227,773,000  144,180,000  700
Delaware  377,000  49,000  29,000  78,000  93,422,000  59,136,000  200
District of Columbia  286,000  20,000  11,000  31,000  44,420,000  28,118,000  100
Florida  7,403,000  1,006,000  511,000  1,517,000  2,213,016,000  1,400,839,000  5,600
Georgia  3,948,000  665,000  310,000  975,000  1,435,400,000  908,608,000  3,500
Hawaii  534,000  72,000  35,000  107,000  158,410,000  100,274,000  400
Idaho  603,000  122,000  50,000  172,000  283,467,000  179,435,000  800
Illinois  5,506,000  830,000  408,000  1,238,000  1,384,249,000  876,230,000  4,500
Indiana  2,732,000  436,000  196,000  632,000  901,528,000  570,668,000  2,100
Iowa  1,412,000  225,000  107,000  332,000  419,100,000  265,291,000  1,000
Kansas  1,289,000  215,000  79,000  294,000  442,106,000  279,853,000  1,100
Kentucky  1,707,000  296,000  135,000  431,000  606,246,000  383,753,000  1,400
Louisiana  1,744,000  307,000  145,000  451,000  691,678,000  437,832,000  1,700
Maine  565,000  76,000  41,000  117,000  131,752,000  83,399,000  400
Maryland  2,594,000  278,000  153,000  431,000  595,142,000  376,725,000  1,500
Massachusetts  2,935,000  318,000  145,000  463,000  544,842,000  344,885,000  1,700
Michigan  3,911,000  684,000  280,000  964,000  1,441,669,000  912,576,000  3,700
Minnesota  2,495,000  315,000  149,000  464,000  601,748,000  380,906,000  1,600
Mississippi  1,099,000  232,000  84,000  316,000  570,414,000  361,072,000  1,300
Missouri  2,582,000  420,000  170,000  590,000  868,093,000  549,503,000  2,100
Montana  383,000  61,000  33,000  94,000  130,685,000  82,724,000  300
Nebraska  843,000  132,000  57,000  189,000  243,729,000  154,280,000  600
Nevada  1,069,000  161,000  82,000  243,000  279,947,000  177,206,000  800
New Hampshire  628,000  69,000  40,000  109,000  125,902,000  79,696,000  300
New Jersey  3,884,000  486,000  229,000  715,000  953,031,000  603,269,000  2,300
New Mexico  737,000  99,000  41,000  140,000  197,557,000  125,054,000  500
New York  8,054,000  977,000  509,000  1,486,000  1,984,433,000  1,256,146,000  4,700
North Carolina  3,657,000  646,000  269,000  915,000  1,339,022,000  847,601,000  3,400
North Dakota  323,000  47,000  22,000  69,000  94,870,000  60,052,000  200
Ohio  4,899,000  914,000  313,000  1,227,000  1,860,895,000  1,177,947,000  4,700
Oklahoma  1,483,000  258,000  114,000  372,000  572,160,000  362,177,000  1,400
Oregon  1,601,000  221,000  112,000  333,000  311,175,000  196,974,000  1,700
Pennsylvania  5,447,000  809,000  333,000  1,142,000  1,589,574,000  1,006,200,000  3,900
Rhode Island  462,000  66,000  29,000  95,000  119,861,000  75,872,000  300
South Carolina  1,758,000  314,000  154,000  468,000  685,264,000  433,772,000  1,700
South Dakota  366,000  61,000  30,000  92,000  119,148,000  75,421,000  300
Tennessee  2,544,000  454,000  222,000  677,000  970,623,000  614,404,000  2,400
Texas  10,395,000  2,030,000  770,000  2,801,000  4,880,567,000  3,089,399,000  11,500
Utah  1,163,000  188,000  93,000  281,000  412,094,000  260,855,000  1,000
Vermont  296,000  32,000  24,000  56,000  52,815,000  33,432,000  200
Virginia  3,616,000  512,000  239,000  751,000  1,100,846,000  696,835,000  2,700
Washington  2,780,000  256,000  171,000  427,000  308,647,000  195,374,000  1,700
West Virginia  684,000  141,000  41,000  182,000  316,897,000  200,595,000  800
Wisconsin  2,576,000  409,000  176,000  585,000  718,462,000  454,786,000  1,800
Wyoming  255,000  33,000  16,000  50,000  66,969,000  42,391,000  200

1. Total estimated workers is estimated from the CPS respondents for whom either a valid hourly wage is reported or one can be imputed from weekly earnings and average weekly hours. Consequently, this estimate tends to understate the size of the full state workforce.

2. Directly affected workers will see their wages rise, as the new minimum-wage rate will exceed their current hourly pay.

3. Indirectly affected workers currently have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage, and the new minimum wage plus the dollar amount of the increase in the 2012 minimum wage). They will receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage.

4. Increased wages: total amount of increased wages for directly and indirectly affected workers, assuming they work 52 weeks a year

5. GDP impact figures utilize a national model to estimate the GDP impact of workers' increased earnings. Thus, the total state stimulus may be lower than this amount because workers in each state will not necessarily spend all of their increased earnings in-state. However, we can assume that most of the increased earnings will be spent in-state, and thus most of the jobs created will be in-state. Figures are three-year totals.

6. The increased economic activity from these additional wages adds not just jobs but also hours for people who already have jobs (work hours for people with jobs also dropped in the downturn). Full-time employment takes that into account by essentially taking the number of total hours added (including both hours from new jobs and more hours for people who already have jobs) and dividing by 40, to get full-time-equivalent jobs added. Jobs numbers are job years following the third-year increase. Figures assume full-time employment requires $115,000 in additional GDP.

Notes: Figures may not sum to total due to rounding. Job impact estimation methods can be found in Hall and Gable (2012) and Bivens (2011).

Source: Authors' analysis of Harkin/Miller proposal using Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata

View the underlying data on epi.org.