Without manufacturing policy action, growth in the electric vehicle share of the auto market leads to job losses; inclusion of plug-in hybrids mitigates some losses: Change in U.S. auto jobs in 2030 if the total number of cars made stays the same but the share that are battery electric vehicles rises
| Auto assembly jobs | Auto parts jobs | |
|---|---|---|
| 30/70 | -19,888 | -24,401 |
| 50/50 | -33,147 | -40,668 |
| 25/25/50 | -2,199 | -13,245 |
| 40/10/50 | -20,768 | -29,699 |
Notes: Today vehicles powered exclusively by a battery and an electric motor (battery electric vehicles, or BEVs) make up a very small share of the U.S. light-duty vehicle market (cars, vans, SUVs, and pickup trucks). Most vehicles are still conventional gas/diesel-powered (i.e., powered by internal combustion engines, or ICEs), and the rest are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, which are vehicles powered by a battery and an electric motor in addition to an ICE. The figure shows the job effects if the total number of cars produced in the U.S. stays the same but there is a rise in the shares that are BEVs and PHEVs. All other factors remain the same (e.g., the U.S. share of all autos produced remains the same, as does the share of a particular type of vehicle’s drivetrain that is made up of domestic content).
Source: Authors’ analysis of scenarios described in the text, from results estimated using the IMPLAN (2019) input-output model.