Onshoring and expanding electric vehicle powertrain components production in the U.S. would greatly stem auto parts job losses from growth in the electric vehicle share of the auto market: Change in U.S. auto jobs in 2030 if the EV market share rises and the U.S.-produced share of EV powertrain components rises to equal that of conventional vehicle powertrains
| Auto assembly jobs | Auto parts jobs | |
|---|---|---|
| 30/70 | -19,888 | -1,509 |
| 50/50 | -33,147 | -2,515 |
| 25/25/50 | -2,199 | 1,602 |
| 40/10/50 | -20,768 | -868 |
Notes: Today vehicles powered exclusively by a battery and an electric motor (battery electric vehicles, or BEVs) make up a very small share of the U.S. light-duty vehicle market (cars, vans, SUVs, and pickup trucks). Most vehicles are still conventional gas/diesel-powered (i.e., powered by internal combustion engines, or ICEs), and the rest are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which are vehicles powered by a battery and an electric motor in addition to an ICE. The figure shows the job effects if the total number of cars produced in the U.S. stays the same but there is a rise in the shares that are BEVs and PHEVs, and if an increase in U.S. production of electric vehicle (EV) powertrain components brings U.S. manufacturers’ share of the EV powertrain market up to their share of the ICE powertrain market.
Source: Authors’ analysis of scenarios described in the text, from results estimated using the IMPLAN (2019) input-output model.