Policies that help the U.S. regain leadership in the auto sector will affect job changes associated with growth in the electric vehicle share of the auto market: Change in U.S. auto jobs in 2030 if electric vehicles account for half of the auto market, under various scenarios
| Auto assembly jobs | Auto parts jobs | |
|---|---|---|
| Base | -33,147 | -40,668 |
| Hybrid | -2,199 | -13,245 |
| Dom. cont. | -33,147 | -2,515 |
| Market share | 3,184 | 103,617 |
| -10% Mkt. shr. | -69,477 | -184,953 |
| Mkt. shr. + dom. cont. | 3,184 | 149,401 |
Notes: “Equivalent domestic content” means U.S. manufacturers’ share of the EV (electric vehicle) powertrain market matches their share of the ICE (internal combustion engine, i.e., gas-powered) powertrain market. BEVs refers to battery electric (all-electric) vehicles. PHEVs refers to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. A +10 ppt. market share means the domestic share of overall vehicle sales increases by 10 percentage points. A –10 ppt. market share means the domestic share of overall vehicle sales decreases by 10 percentage points.
Source: Authors’ analysis of scenarios described in the text, from results estimated using the IMPLAN (2019) input-output model.