When unemployment is 4.4 percent, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio is historically much higher: Average prime-age employment-to-population ratio when the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in last two business cycles

Year Average prime-age EPOP during months that unemployment rate was 4.4
1998/1999 81.2
2006/2007 80.1
2017 78.5

Note: The unemployment rate hit 4.4% in "1998/1999" (May 1998, November 1998, December 1998, February of 1999, and April 2001), "2006/2007" (October 2006, December 2006, March 2007, and May 2007), and "2017" (April 2017, August 2017). The vertical axis is scaled to the minimum and maximum values (74.8 and 81.9) of the prime-age (25-54) employment-to-population ratio over the last two decades.

Source: EPI analysis of BLS Current Population Survey public data series.

View the underlying data on epi.org.