Measuring the job shortfall since February 2020: Actual and counterfactual employment, January 2019–October 2023
| date | Actual nonfarm payroll employment | Employment if it had continued growing at the pre-recession level | Employment if it had grown with population growth since February 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-2019 | 151.3 | NA | NA |
| Oct-2019 | 151.4 | NA | NA |
| Nov-2019 | 151.7 | NA | NA |
| Dec-2019 | 151.8 | NA | NA |
| Jan-2020 | 152.1 | NA | NA |
| Feb-2020 | 152.4 | 152.4 | 152.4 |
| Mar-2020 | 150.9 | 152.6 | 152.5 |
| Apr-2020 | 130.4 | 152.8 | 152.6 |
| May-2020 | 133.1 | 152.9 | 152.7 |
| Jun-2020 | 137.6 | 153.1 | 152.8 |
| Jul-2020 | 139.1 | 153.3 | 152.9 |
| Aug-2020 | 140.8 | 153.5 | 153.0 |
| Sep-2020 | 141.8 | 153.7 | 153.1 |
| Oct-2020 | 142.5 | 153.9 | 153.2 |
| Nov-2020 | 142.7 | 154.1 | 153.3 |
| Dec-2020 | 142.5 | 154.3 | 153.4 |
| Jan-2021 | 143.0 | 154.5 | 153.5 |
| Feb-2021 | 143.5 | 154.6 | 153.6 |
| Mar-2021 | 144.3 | 154.8 | 153.8 |
| Apr-2021 | 144.6 | 155.0 | 153.9 |
| May-2021 | 145.1 | 155.2 | 154.0 |
| Jun-2021 | 145.8 | 155.4 | 154.1 |
| Jul-2021 | 146.6 | 155.6 | 154.2 |
| Aug-2021 | 147.2 | 155.8 | 154.3 |
| Sep-2021 | 147.8 | 156.0 | 154.4 |
| Oct-2021 | 148.6 | 156.2 | 154.5 |
| Nov-2021 | 149.2 | 156.4 | 154.6 |
| Dec-2021 | 149.7 | 156.5 | 154.7 |
| Jan-2022 | 150.1 | 156.7 | 154.8 |
| Feb-2022 | 151.0 | 156.9 | 154.9 |
| Mar-2022 | 151.4 | 157.1 | 155.0 |
| Apr-2022 | 151.7 | 157.3 | 155.1 |
| May-2022 | 152.0 | 157.5 | 155.2 |
| Jun-2022 | 152.4 | 157.7 | 155.3 |
| Jul-2022 | 153.0 | 157.9 | 155.5 |
| Aug-2022 | 153.3 | 158.1 | 155.6 |
| Sep-2022 | 153.7 | 158.3 | 155.7 |
| Oct-2022 | 154.0 | 158.4 | 155.8 |
| Nov-2022 | 154.3 | 158.6 | 155.9 |
| Dec-2022 | 154.5 | 158.8 | 156.0 |
| Jan-2023 | 155.0 | 159.0 | 156.1 |
| Feb-2023 | 155.3 | 159.2 | 156.2 |
| Mar-2023 | 155.5 | 159.4 | 156.3 |
| Apr-2023 | 155.7 | 159.6 | 156.4 |
| May-2023 | 156.0 | 159.8 | 156.5 |
| Jun-2023 | 156.1 | 160.0 | 156.6 |
| Jul-2023 | 156.2 | 160.2 | 156.8 |
| Aug-2023 | 156.5 | 160.3 | 156.9 |
| Sep-2023 | 156.8 | 160.5 | 157.0 |
| Oct-2023 | 156.9 | 160.7 | 157.1 |
Notes: Payroll employment growth averaged 202,000 in the 12 months leading up to the pandemic recession. Population-adjusted employment growth applies population growth in the latest month since February 2020 to payroll employment and interpolates in the intervening years.
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey public data series.