Federal budget deficits and interest rates, 1962–2014
| Date | Federal net lending as a percent of GDP | Real interest rates |
|---|---|---|
| 1962/01/01 | -2.77218 | 2.66 |
| 1962/04/01 | -2.73813 | 2.34 |
| 1962/07/01 | -2.59186 | 2.29 |
| 1962/10/01 | -2.67493 | 2.23 |
| 1963/01/01 | -2.10374 | 2.08 |
| 1963/04/01 | -1.74106 | 2.30 |
| 1963/07/01 | -2.00000 | 2.37 |
| 1963/10/01 | -1.89371 | 2.41 |
| 1964/01/01 | -2.36889 | 2.66 |
| 1964/04/01 | -3.01116 | 2.56 |
| 1964/07/01 | -2.48268 | 2.70 |
| 1964/10/01 | -2.03322 | 2.62 |
| 1965/01/01 | -1.33482 | 2.52 |
| 1965/04/01 | -1.35172 | 2.57 |
| 1965/07/01 | -2.38603 | 2.56 |
| 1965/10/01 | -2.34122 | 2.78 |
| 1966/01/01 | -1.86881 | 3.12 |
| 1966/04/01 | -1.90783 | 2.97 |
| 1966/07/01 | -2.38791 | 3.27 |
| 1966/10/01 | -2.63505 | 3.02 |
| 1967/01/01 | -3.64066 | 2.51 |
| 1967/04/01 | -3.41910 | 2.83 |
| 1967/07/01 | -3.58874 | 3.18 |
| 1967/10/01 | -3.28351 | 3.57 |
| 1968/01/01 | -2.83174 | 3.36 |
| 1968/04/01 | -2.93709 | 3.40 |
| 1968/07/01 | -2.00567 | 3.03 |
| 1968/10/01 | -1.89671 | 3.07 |
| 1969/01/01 | -0.76351 | 3.32 |
| 1969/04/01 | -0.84042 | 3.24 |
| 1969/07/01 | -1.55039 | 3.56 |
| 1969/10/01 | -1.71039 | 4.13 |
| 1970/01/01 | -2.65781 | 4.20 |
| 1970/04/01 | -3.44828 | 4.40 |
| 1970/07/01 | -3.94120 | 3.99 |
| 1970/10/01 | -4.39762 | 3.10 |
| 1971/01/01 | -3.87590 | 2.13 |
| 1971/04/01 | -4.64033 | 2.27 |
| 1971/07/01 | -4.52427 | 2.50 |
| 1971/10/01 | -4.26441 | 1.89 |
| 1972/01/01 | -3.58243 | 1.92 |
| 1972/04/01 | -4.18865 | 2.10 |
| 1972/07/01 | -3.12258 | 2.25 |
| 1972/10/01 | -4.11411 | 2.30 |
| 1973/01/01 | -2.67256 | 2.65 |
| 1973/04/01 | -2.96981 | 2.98 |
| 1973/07/01 | -2.17149 | 3.34 |
| 1973/10/01 | -2.08911 | 3.00 |
| 1974/01/01 | -2.29477 | 3.25 |
| 1974/04/01 | -1.89024 | 3.50 |
| 1974/07/01 | -2.53934 | 3.88 |
| 1974/10/01 | -3.33125 | 3.32 |
| 1975/01/01 | -4.92714 | 3.00 |
| 1975/04/01 | -8.11398 | 3.36 |
| 1975/07/01 | -5.77664 | 3.43 |
| 1975/10/01 | -5.69681 | 2.93 |
| 1976/01/01 | -4.88353 | 2.23 |
| 1976/04/01 | -4.36211 | 2.00 |
| 1976/07/01 | -4.50145 | 1.64 |
| 1976/10/01 | -4.71007 | 0.83 |
| 1977/01/01 | -3.84442 | 0.98 |
| 1977/04/01 | -3.72779 | 0.86 |
| 1977/07/01 | -3.85884 | 0.75 |
| 1977/10/01 | -3.90557 | 1.32 |
| 1978/01/01 | -4.01594 | 2.23 |
| 1978/04/01 | -2.95729 | 2.82 |
| 1978/07/01 | -2.88882 | 3.36 |
| 1978/10/01 | -2.65490 | 3.96 |
| 1979/01/01 | -2.13699 | 4.28 |
| 1979/04/01 | -2.16110 | 4.31 |
| 1979/07/01 | -2.38167 | 4.31 |
| 1979/10/01 | -2.52682 | 5.30 |
| 1980/01/01 | -3.02521 | 6.43 |
| 1980/04/01 | -3.95371 | 4.81 |
| 1980/07/01 | -4.17133 | 5.14 |
| 1980/10/01 | -3.49424 | 6.53 |
| 1981/01/01 | -3.03659 | 6.85 |
| 1981/04/01 | -2.99002 | 7.46 |
| 1981/07/01 | -2.85171 | 8.40 |
| 1981/10/01 | -4.09319 | 7.50 |
| 1982/01/01 | -4.57267 | 7.61 |
| 1982/04/01 | -4.91400 | 7.11 |
| 1982/07/01 | -5.92795 | 6.31 |
| 1982/10/01 | -6.70521 | 3.77 |
| 1983/01/01 | -6.82987 | 3.91 |
| 1983/04/01 | -6.04944 | 4.17 |
| 1983/07/01 | -6.67064 | 5.47 |
| 1983/10/01 | -6.11680 | 5.81 |
| 1984/01/01 | -5.46923 | 6.42 |
| 1984/04/01 | -5.53674 | 7.90 |
| 1984/07/01 | -5.63684 | 7.85 |
| 1984/10/01 | -6.04687 | 7.28 |
| 1985/01/01 | -5.01770 | 7.43 |
| 1985/04/01 | -6.25479 | 6.82 |
| 1985/07/01 | -5.64557 | 6.60 |
| 1985/10/01 | -5.78024 | 6.26 |
| 1986/01/01 | -5.57315 | 5.06 |
| 1986/04/01 | -5.91851 | 4.37 |
| 1986/07/01 | -6.29708 | 4.25 |
| 1986/10/01 | -5.24907 | 4.06 |
| 1987/01/01 | -5.25105 | 4.18 |
| 1987/04/01 | -4.15854 | 5.44 |
| 1987/07/01 | -4.31997 | 5.98 |
| 1987/10/01 | -4.32437 | 6.33 |
| 1988/01/01 | -4.13114 | 5.58 |
| 1988/04/01 | -3.91344 | 6.08 |
| 1988/07/01 | -3.61921 | 6.20 |
| 1988/10/01 | -3.65806 | 6.14 |
| 1989/01/01 | -3.18962 | 6.79 |
| 1989/04/01 | -3.44681 | 6.31 |
| 1989/07/01 | -3.55248 | 5.67 |
| 1989/10/01 | -3.53784 | 5.22 |
| 1990/01/01 | -3.98418 | 5.20 |
| 1990/04/01 | -3.91993 | 5.30 |
| 1990/07/01 | -3.84609 | 5.25 |
| 1990/10/01 | -4.55564 | 5.05 |
| 1991/01/01 | -3.62192 | 4.59 |
| 1991/04/01 | -4.52341 | 4.63 |
| 1991/07/01 | -5.03506 | 4.42 |
| 1991/10/01 | -4.97985 | 3.80 |
| 1992/01/01 | -5.49931 | 3.70 |
| 1992/04/01 | -5.54657 | 3.99 |
| 1992/07/01 | -5.62362 | 3.33 |
| 1992/10/01 | -5.30347 | 3.32 |
| 1993/01/01 | -5.35995 | 3.11 |
| 1993/04/01 | -4.72648 | 2.59 |
| 1993/07/01 | -4.82460 | 2.04 |
| 1993/10/01 | -4.23018 | 2.41 |
| 1994/01/01 | -3.77091 | 3.06 |
| 1994/04/01 | -3.35222 | 4.43 |
| 1994/07/01 | -3.65605 | 5.00 |
| 1994/10/01 | -3.54974 | 5.50 |
| 1995/01/01 | -3.50947 | 5.09 |
| 1995/04/01 | -3.29130 | 4.23 |
| 1995/07/01 | -2.90923 | 3.88 |
| 1995/10/01 | -2.91557 | 3.48 |
| 1996/01/01 | -2.99249 | 3.49 |
| 1996/04/01 | -2.34944 | 4.34 |
| 1996/07/01 | -2.13384 | 4.43 |
| 1996/10/01 | -1.54941 | 4.05 |
| 1997/01/01 | -1.39729 | 4.29 |
| 1997/04/01 | -0.86063 | 4.30 |
| 1997/07/01 | -0.76510 | 3.92 |
| 1997/10/01 | -0.78741 | 3.51 |
| 1998/01/01 | -0.16311 | 3.16 |
| 1998/04/01 | 0.06559 | 3.31 |
| 1998/07/01 | 0.31815 | 2.96 |
| 1998/10/01 | 0.24663 | 2.41 |
| 1999/01/01 | 0.57458 | 2.73 |
| 1999/04/01 | 0.64530 | 3.31 |
| 1999/07/01 | 0.70174 | 3.53 |
| 1999/10/01 | 0.63832 | 3.85 |
| 2000/01/01 | 1.69887 | 4.36 |
| 2000/04/01 | 1.39444 | 4.01 |
| 2000/07/01 | 1.44831 | 3.75 |
| 2000/10/01 | 1.36321 | 3.49 |
| 2001/01/01 | 1.19762 | 2.88 |
| 2001/04/01 | 0.74801 | 3.05 |
| 2001/07/01 | -1.39793 | 2.74 |
| 2001/10/01 | -0.51856 | 2.46 |
| 2002/01/01 | -2.37698 | 2.67 |
| 2002/04/01 | -2.75736 | 2.67 |
| 2002/07/01 | -2.85784 | 1.80 |
| 2002/10/01 | -3.30101 | 1.42 |
| 2003/01/01 | -3.45746 | 1.33 |
| 2003/04/01 | -4.18946 | 0.97 |
| 2003/07/01 | -4.67734 | 1.62 |
| 2003/10/01 | -3.98105 | 1.68 |
| 2004/01/01 | -4.24638 | 1.45 |
| 2004/04/01 | -3.85603 | 2.25 |
| 2004/07/01 | -3.65337 | 2.18 |
| 2004/10/01 | -3.59525 | 2.21 |
| 2005/01/01 | -3.07033 | 2.25 |
| 2005/04/01 | -2.97864 | 1.98 |
| 2005/07/01 | -3.38924 | 1.78 |
| 2005/10/01 | -2.70113 | 1.79 |
| 2006/01/01 | -2.36047 | 2.11 |
| 2006/04/01 | -2.37414 | 2.51 |
| 2006/07/01 | -2.23141 | 2.36 |
| 2006/10/01 | -1.54033 | 2.12 |
| 2007/01/01 | -2.10467 | 1.93 |
| 2007/04/01 | -2.39038 | 2.16 |
| 2007/07/01 | -2.64619 | 1.84 |
| 2007/10/01 | -2.65283 | 1.53 |
| 2008/01/01 | -3.31427 | 0.91 |
| 2008/04/01 | -5.79061 | 0.83 |
| 2008/07/01 | -5.18785 | 0.79 |
| 2008/10/01 | -6.96172 | 0.07 |
| 2009/01/01 | -9.26557 | -0.41 |
| 2009/04/01 | -10.97329 | 0.49 |
| 2009/07/01 | -10.51903 | 1.32 |
| 2009/10/01 | -10.21210 | 1.34 |
| 2010/01/01 | -10.46175 | 1.55 |
| 2010/04/01 | -10.47771 | 1.41 |
| 2010/07/01 | -9.84996 | 0.21 |
| 2010/10/01 | -9.59643 | 0.28 |
| 2011/01/01 | -9.04093 | 0.86 |
| 2011/04/01 | -9.51435 | 0.30 |
| 2011/07/01 | -8.83947 | 0.57 |
| 2011/10/01 | -8.66759 | 0.65 |
| 2012/01/01 | -7.50112 | 0.79 |
| 2012/04/01 | -7.68855 | 0.71 |
| 2012/07/01 | -7.42847 | -0.46 |
| 2012/10/01 | -7.29767 | -0.66 |
| 2013/01/01 | -5.59651 | -0.23 |
| 2013/04/01 | -4.32447 | 0.02 |
| 2013/07/01 | -5.44732 | 0.78 |
| 2013/10/01 | -4.10835 | 0.56 |
| 2014/01/01 | -4.57276 | 0.24 |
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Real rates calculated by subtracting 12-quarter weighted average of inflation, with higher weights on most recent quarter.
Source: Authors' analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Table 5.1) Federal Reserve Economic Data public data series, and Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index program public data series