Impact of trade with low-wage countries on college/noncollege wage gap in the United States, 1973–2011
| Change | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 | 1979 | 1989 | 1995 | 2000 | 2007 | 2011 | 1979–1995 | 1995–2011 | 1979–2011 | |
| Manufacturing trade penetration (as share of GDP)* | ||||||||||
| Less-developed country (LDC) trade | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 1.8 | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| China trade*** | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| College/noncollege wage gap** | ||||||||||
| 36.9% | 28.9% | 41.5% | 46.1% | 48.2% | 49.2% | 50.9% | 17.2 | 4.8 | 22.0 | |
| Estimated impact of trade on college/noncollege wage gap | ||||||||||
| All LDC trade | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 2.9 | 4.4 | 7.3 |
| China trade*** | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Trade share of college/noncollege wage gap | Percent of change | |||||||||
| All LDC trade | 4.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 17.9% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 93.4% | 33.2% |
| China trade*** | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 51.6 | 14.4 |
* "Penetration" is the average of the import share and the trade share to reflect current imbalance but also impact of balanced trade.
** Differential between those with a college or advanced degree and all other workers
*** Based on China share of LDC trade share, which assumes China trade impact equals other LDC trade impact
Source: Author's update of Bivens (2008) reanalysis of Krugman (1995) computable general equilibrium model using 2011 USITC and Bureau of Economic Analysis NIPA data. Reproduced from Mishel et al. (2012), Table 4.29.