High rates of return estimated by Heintz (2010), confirmed: Error correction model of determinants of US private-sector productivity, various time periods

Variables 1949–2015 1949–2007 1959–2015 1979–2015
Levels (potential cointegrating relationships)
Output-to-capital ratio, lagged −0.202 −0.221 −0.207 −0.272
[3.14]*** [2.97]*** [2.61]** [3.91]***
Private capital stock, lagged −0.46 −0.536 −0.549 −0.257
[4.46]*** [4.21]*** [3.82]*** [2.26]**
Labor force, lagged 0.407 0.394 0.391 0.411
[5.81]*** [5.10]*** [4.49]*** [5.82]***
Public capital stock, lagged 0.147 0.16 0.204 0.092
[3.95]*** [3.83]*** [3.27]*** [0.82]
First differences −1.165 −1.163 −1.19 −0.864
Private capital stock [6.60]*** [5.94]*** [5.00]*** [4.24]***
0.857 0.835 0.829 0.785
Labor force [19.03]*** [16.48]*** [13.57]*** [14.47]***
0.546 0.351 0.518 0.032
Public capital stock [3.72]*** [1.83]* [1.94]* [0.12]
0.004 0.006 0.005
Time trend yes yes yes yes
R-squared, adj. 0.9 0.88 0.86 0.91
N 66 57 56 36

Notes: The dependent variable is the change in private-sector productivity, measured as the ratio of private-sector output to private-sector capital stock. Data and methods are discussed in the technical appendix. T-statistics are in brackets. Three asterisks denote significance at the 1 percent level, two asterisks denote significance at the 5 percent level, and one asterisk denotes significance at the 10 percent level.

Source: Author’s analysis of data the from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Fixed Assets data series, BEA National Income and Product Accounts, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

View the underlying data on epi.org.