Reclaiming labor’s lost share still requires significantly faster wage growth: How long would it take to return to pre Great Recession labor share levels at various paces of wage growth?

 

Date 3.2 percent 3.5 percent 4 percent
2007Q4 78.7777% 78.7777% 78.7777%
2008Q1 79.2193% 79.2193% 79.2193%
2008Q2 79.3496% 79.3496% 79.3496%
2008Q3 79.5998% 79.5998% 79.5998%
2008Q4 79.5952% 79.5952% 79.5952%
2009Q1 79.5905% 79.5905% 79.5905%
2009Q2 79.0456% 79.0456% 79.0456%
2009Q3 77.8820% 77.8820% 77.8820%
2009Q4 76.7360% 76.7360% 76.7360%
2010Q1 75.5643% 75.5643% 75.5643%
2010Q2 75.9344% 75.9344% 75.9344%
2010Q3 74.0393% 74.0393% 74.0393%
2010Q4 74.1481% 74.1481% 74.1481%
2011Q1 76.1685% 76.1685% 76.1685%
2011Q2 74.9298% 74.9298% 74.9298%
2011Q3 75.0366% 75.0366% 75.0366%
2011Q4 73.3147% 73.3147% 73.3147%
2012Q1 72.9571% 72.9571% 72.9571%
2012Q2 73.2436% 73.2436% 73.2436%
2012Q3 73.5896% 73.5896% 73.5896%
2012Q4 74.3623% 74.3623% 74.3623%
2013Q1 73.9712% 73.9712% 73.9712%
2013Q2 74.0949% 74.0949% 74.0949%
2013Q3 74.1665% 74.1665% 74.1665%
2013Q4 73.6984% 73.6984% 73.6984%
2014Q1 74.9508% 74.9508% 74.9508%
2014Q2 73.1916% 73.1916% 73.1916%
2014Q3 72.4188% 72.4188% 72.4188%
2014Q4 72.8773% 72.8773% 72.8773%
2015Q1 73.3065% 73.3065% 73.3065%
2015Q2 73.5011% 73.5011% 73.5011%
2015Q3 74.0471% 74.0471% 74.0471%
2015Q4 74.6307% 74.6307% 74.6307%
2016Q1 74.5656% 74.5656% 74.5656%
2016Q2 74.5805% 74.5805% 74.5805%
2016Q3 74.6087% 74.6087% 74.6087%
2016Q4 74.8150% 74.8150% 74.8150%
2017Q1 75.3236% 75.3236% 75.3236%
2017Q2 75.1285% 75.1285% 75.1285%
2017Q3 75.6357% 75.6357% 75.6357%
2017Q4 75.6830% 75.6830% 75.6830%
2018Q1 75.6393% 75.6393% 75.6393%
2018Q2 75.3031% 75.3031% 75.3031%
2018Q3 74.7009% 74.7009% 74.7009%
2018Q4 74.7194% 74.7750% 74.8676%
2019Q1 74.7379% 74.8492% 75.0348%
2019Q2 74.7565% 74.9235% 75.2023%
2019Q3 74.7750% 74.9978% 75.3702%
2019Q4 74.7936% 75.0722% 75.5385%
2020Q1 74.8121% 75.1467% 75.7072%
2020Q2 74.8307% 75.2213% 75.8762%
2020Q3 74.8492% 75.2959% 76.0456%
2020Q4 74.8678% 75.3706% 76.2154%
2021Q1 74.8864% 75.4454% 76.3856%
2021Q2 74.9050% 75.5203% 76.5561%
2021Q3 74.9235% 75.5952% 76.7270%
2021Q4 74.9421% 75.6703% 76.8983%
2022Q1 74.9607% 75.7453% 77.0700%
2022Q2 74.9793% 75.8205% 77.2421%
2022Q3 74.9979% 75.8957% 77.4146%
2022Q4 75.0165% 75.9711% 77.5874%
2023Q1 75.0351% 76.0464% 77.7606%
2023Q2 75.0537% 76.1219% 77.9342%
2023Q3 75.0724% 76.1974% 78.1082%
2023Q4 75.0910% 76.2730% 78.2826%
2024Q1 75.1096% 76.3487% 78.4574%
2024Q2 75.1282% 76.4245% 78.6326%
2024Q3 75.1469% 76.5003% 78.8082%
2024Q4 75.1655% 76.5762%
2025Q1 75.1842% 76.6522%
2025Q2 75.2028% 76.7283%
2025Q3 75.2215% 76.8044%
2025Q4 75.2401% 76.8806%
2026Q1 75.2588% 76.9569%
2026Q2 75.2775% 77.0333%
2026Q3 75.2961% 77.1097%
2026Q4 75.3148% 77.1863%
2027Q1 75.3335% 77.2629%
2027Q2 75.3522% 77.3395%
2027Q3 75.3709% 77.4163%
2027Q4 75.3896% 77.4931%
2028Q1 75.4083% 77.5700%
2028Q2 75.4270% 77.6470%
2028Q3 75.4457% 77.7240%
2028Q4 75.4644% 77.8011%
2029Q1 75.4831% 77.8783%
2029Q2 75.5019% 77.9556%
2029Q3 75.5206% 78.0330%
2029Q4 75.5393% 78.1104%
2030Q1 75.5581% 78.1879%
2030Q2 75.5768% 78.2655%
2030Q3 75.5956% 78.3432%
2030Q4 75.6143% 78.4209%
2031Q1 75.6331% 78.4987%
2031Q2 75.6518% 78.5766%
2031Q3 75.6706% 78.6546%
2031Q4 75.6894% 78.7326%
2032Q1 75.7082% 78.8108%

Note: Sources and methods for data through third quarter 2018 the same as Figure A. All projections after that date assume annual productivity growth of 1.1 percent - the pace that characterized productivity growth from the beginning of 2017 to the most recent GDP data (third quarter of 2018). All projections also assume that the Fed hits its stated 2 percent inflation target. The 3.2 percent growth rate is slightly faster than what characterized wage growth for all workers as measured by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program of the BLS.

Source: EPI labor measure is analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Tables 1.14 and 6.16D). BLS NFB measure is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Productivity and Costs (LPC) program, series # PRS85006173. BLS labor share measure retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS85006173, January 24, 2019.

View the underlying data on epi.org.