All signs point to continuing weakness in aggregate demand: Inflation, wage growth, interest rates, and the share of adults between the ages of 25 and 54 with a job
| Year | Price inflation | Wage growth | Interest rates | Prime-age EPOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-01-01 | 1.6691% | 3.7343% | 6.47% | 81.8% |
| 2000-04-01 | 1.6868% | 3.8481% | 6.18% | 81.7 |
| 2000-07-01 | 1.8021% | 3.8358% | 5.89% | 81.2 |
| 2000-10-01 | 1.8297% | 4.1463% | 5.57% | 81.3 |
| 2001-01-01 | 1.8446% | 4.0831% | 5.04% | 81.3 |
| 2001-04-01 | 1.9072% | 3.9923% | 5.28% | 80.8 |
| 2001-07-01 | 1.7337% | 3.6941% | 5.00% | 80.3 |
| 2001-10-01 | 1.7605% | 3.3489% | 4.76% | 79.8 |
| 2002-01-01 | 1.4767% | 2.9712% | 5.08% | 79.7 |
| 2002-04-01 | 1.6742% | 2.6667% | 5.11% | 79.4 |
| 2002-07-01 | 1.9091% | 2.9230% | 4.27% | 79.2 |
| 2002-10-01 | 1.7462% | 3.0591% | 4.00% | 79 |
| 2003-01-01 | 1.7033% | 3.2462% | 3.92% | 78.9 |
| 2003-04-01 | 1.4787% | 2.9333% | 3.62% | 79 |
| 2003-07-01 | 1.3655% | 2.5960% | 4.23% | 78.7 |
| 2003-10-01 | 1.3676% | 1.9569% | 4.29% | 78.7 |
| 2004-01-01 | 1.6692% | 1.7467% | 4.01% | 78.8 |
| 2004-04-01 | 1.9163% | 2.0231% | 4.60% | 79 |
| 2004-07-01 | 1.9725% | 2.1194% | 4.30% | 79.1 |
| 2004-10-01 | 2.0929% | 2.4585% | 4.18% | 79 |
| 2005-01-01 | 2.1916% | 2.5751% | 4.30% | 79.2 |
| 2005-04-01 | 2.1165% | 2.6226% | 4.16% | 79.3 |
| 2005-07-01 | 2.0717% | 2.7319% | 4.22% | 79.5 |
| 2005-10-01 | 2.2600% | 3.0309% | 4.49% | 79.3 |
| 2006-01-01 | 2.1283% | 3.4310% | 4.58% | 79.7 |
| 2006-04-01 | 2.2716% | 3.9061% | 5.07% | 79.7 |
| 2006-07-01 | 2.3936% | 4.0404% | 4.89% | 79.8 |
| 2006-10-01 | 2.1577% | 4.1267% | 4.63% | 80.1 |
| 2007-01-01 | 2.3628% | 4.1060% | 4.68% | 80.2 |
| 2007-04-01 | 2.0362% | 4.0392% | 4.85% | 80 |
| 2007-07-01 | 1.9906% | 4.0618% | 4.74% | 79.8 |
| 2007-10-01 | 2.2482% | 3.7865% | 4.27% | 79.7 |
| 2008-01-01 | 2.1117% | 3.7692% | 3.67% | 79.9 |
| 2008-04-01 | 2.2659% | 3.6710% | 3.88% | 79.5 |
| 2008-07-01 | 2.2260% | 3.7510% | 3.86% | 78.9 |
| 2008-10-01 | 1.6417% | 3.8752% | 3.23% | 78 |
| 2009-01-01 | 1.1791% | 3.6323% | 2.74% | 76.6 |
| 2009-04-01 | 1.1621% | 3.1146% | 3.32% | 76 |
| 2009-07-01 | 0.9904% | 2.7161% | 3.52% | 75.5 |
| 2009-10-01 | 1.4156% | 2.6388% | 3.46% | 75 |
| 2010-01-01 | 1.5539% | 2.4932% | 3.72% | 75.1 |
| 2010-04-01 | 1.3290% | 2.4811% | 3.49% | 75.2 |
| 2010-07-01 | 1.2923% | 2.3227% | 2.78% | 75 |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.9707% | 2.2340% | 2.88% | 75 |
| 2011-01-01 | 1.0544% | 2.0977% | 3.46% | 75.2 |
| 2011-04-01 | 1.3995% | 2.0702% | 3.20% | 75.1 |
| 2011-07-01 | 1.6613% | 2.0779% | 2.41% | 75 |
| 2011-10-01 | 1.8617% | 1.8037% | 2.05% | 75.2 |
| 2012-01-01 | 2.0858% | 1.5193% | 2.04% | 75.6 |
| 2012-04-01 | 1.9456% | 1.5469% | 1.83% | 75.7 |
| 2012-07-01 | 1.7476% | 1.3514% | 1.64% | 75.8 |
| 2012-10-01 | 1.7784% | 1.4310% | 1.71% | 76 |
| 2013-01-01 | 1.6282% | 1.9388% | 1.95% | 75.7 |
| 2013-04-01 | 1.4418% | 1.9127% | 1.99% | 75.9 |
| 2013-07-01 | 1.4803% | 2.1772% | 2.71% | 76 |
| 2013-10-01 | 1.4910% | 2.3010% | 2.74% | 76 |
| 2014-01-01 | 1.4830% | 2.3857% | 2.77% | 76.5 |
| 2014-04-01 | 1.7088% | 2.3916% | 2.62% | 76.5 |
| 2014-07-01 | 1.7311% | 2.3621% | 2.50% | 76.8 |
| 2014-10-01 | 1.5655% | 2.1343% | 2.28% | 77 |
| 2015-01-01 | 1.4372% | 1.8739% | 1.97% | 77.2 |
| 2015-04-01 | 1.3669% | 2.0438% | 2.16% | 77.2 |
| 2015-07-01 | 1.3499% | 2.0817% | 2.22% | 77.2 |
| 2015-10-01 | 1.3691% | 2.3308% | 2.19% | 77.4 |
| 2016-01-01 | 1.6059% | 2.4472% | 1.91% | 77.8 |
| 2016-04-01 | 1.6136% | 2.4797% | 1.75% | 77.8 |
| 2016-07-01 | 1.6908% | 2.5767% | 1.56% | 77.9 |
| 2016-10-01 | 1.7221% | 2.1363% | 2.10% | 78.2 |
Source: Author’s analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the U.S. Treasury. Inflation is the four-quarter change in the price index for core personal consumption expenditures from the BEA. Wage growth is the four-quarter change in average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers from the Current Employment Statistics program of the BLS. Interest rates are rates on 10-year constant maturity Treasury bonds. The prime-age EPOP—share of adults between the ages of 25 and 54 with a job—is reported by the Current Population Survey (CPS) program of the BLS.