Measures of economic performance for the last four recessionary troughs
Recession’s trough | Output gap (% of potential GDP) | Cumulative output gap (% of potential GDP) | Federal Funds Rate | Year-over-year inflation rate (PCE) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1982Q4 | -7.6% | -51.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% |
1991Q1 | -2.6% | -56.1% | 7.3% | 3.8% |
2001Q4 | -1.8% | -29.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
2009Q2 | -7.1% | -133.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% |
Note: Data on growth in government spending over first 27 quarters of recovery is author’s analysis of data described in Figure B.
Source: EPI analysis of data from Tables 1.1.4, 3.1, and 3.9.4 from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); data on output gap from Congressional Budget Office (2016); data on federal funds rate and yearly change in core PCE deflator from St. Louis FRED database