Measures of economic performance for the last four recessionary troughs

Recession’s trough Output gap (% of potential GDP) Cumulative output gap (% of potential GDP) Federal Funds Rate Year-over-year inflation rate (PCE)
1982Q4 -7.6% -51.9% 9.3% 5.9%
1991Q1 -2.6% -56.1% 7.3% 3.8%
2001Q4 -1.8% -29.5% 2.1% 1.8%
2009Q2 -7.1% -133.5% 0.2% 1.2%

Note: Data on growth in government spending over first 27 quarters of recovery is author’s analysis of data described in Figure B.

Source: EPI analysis of data from Tables 1.1.4, 3.1, and 3.9.4 from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); data on output gap from Congressional Budget Office (2016); data on federal funds rate and yearly change in core PCE deflator from St. Louis FRED database

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