Change in county private-sector employment before and after opening an Amazon fulfillment center: Percent change in employment two years before and after opening
| Common time fixed effects | Division-specific fixed effects | State-specific time fixed effects | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| 2001–2015 | |||||||||
| Cumulative percent change two years before the opening | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.8%* | -0.5% | 0.4% | -0.8%* | -0.6% | 0.5% |
| (0.4%) | (0.4%) | (0.6%) | (0.4%) | (0.3%) | (0.5%) | (0.5%) | (0.4%) | (0.6%) | |
| Cumulative percent change two years after the opening | -1.5%*** | -1.4%*** | -1.3%*** | -0.2% | -0.0% | -0.2% | -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| (0.5%) | (0.4%) | (0.5%) | (0.5%) | (0.4%) | (0.4%) | (0.5%) | (0.5%) | (0.5%) | |
| 2008–2015 | |||||||||
| Cumulative percent change two years before the opening | 0.7%* | 0.7%** | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| (0.4%) | (0.4%) | (0.7%) | (0.3%) | (0.3%) | (0.6%) | (0.3%) | (0.3%) | (0.7%) | |
| Cumulative percent change two years after the opening | -1.1%*** | -1.1** | -0.8% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| (0.4%) | (0.4%) | (0.9%) | (0.4%) | (0.4%) | (0.6%) | (0.4%) | (0.4%) | (0.7%) | |
| Controls | |||||||||
| County fixed effects | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Predicted employment | Y | Y | Y | ||||||
| County-specific linear time trends | Y | Y | Y | ||||||
Notes: Each column shows cumulative employment effects in the pre-opening or post-opening time period from a regression of county private-sector employment per capita on leads and lags of a count of fulfillment centers in that county as well as county fixed effects. Other controls are indicated at the bottom of the table. Regressions are weighted by mean county population, standard errors are clustered at the county level, and the figure shows 95 percent confidence intervals. We convert the marginal effects and standard errors into percent changes in employment by dividing coefficients by the sample mean employment-to-population ratio.
Sources: Authors' calculations from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages employment data, Census population counts, and fulfillment center openings data described in the text.