Change in county private-sector employment before and after opening an Amazon fulfillment center: Percent employment changes in the two years before and the two years after an opening

2001–2015 sample 2008–2015 sample
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Cumulative percent change two years before the opening 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
(0.4%) (0.6%) (0.5%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%)
Cumulative percent change two years after the opening -1.4%*** -1.3%*** -0.2% -0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
(0.4%) (0.5%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%)
County fixed effects Y Y Y Y Y Y
Common time fixed effects Y Y
Division-specific time fixed effects Y Y
State-specific time fixed effects Y Y
Predicted employment Y Y
County-specific linear time trends Y Y

Notes: This table shows the three models from the 2001–2015 and 2008–2015 sample periods that have the smallest pre-treatment effects. The results from all models are shown in Appendix Table 2. Each column shows cumulative employment effects in the pre-opening or post-opening time period from a regression of county private-sector employment per capita on leads and lags of a count of fulfillment centers in that county as well as county fixed effects. Other controls are indicated at the bottom of the table. See the Appendix for results from other specifications. Regressions are weighted by mean county population, standard errors are clustered at the county level, and the figure shows 95 percent confidence intervals. We convert the marginal effects and standard errors into percent changes in employment by dividing coefficients by the sample mean employment-to-population ratio.

Sources: Authors' calculations from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages employment data, Census population counts, and fulfillment center openings data described in the text.

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