Amazon fulfillment centers do not increase overall county employment: Change in overall county employment before and after opening an Amazon fulfillment center, using state-specific time fixed effects model
| Years from warehouse opening | Elasticity | Elasticity, low estimate | Elasticity, high estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | |||
| -2.25 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| -2 | 0.14% | -0.54% | 0.81% |
| -1.75 | 0.39% | -0.20% | 0.98% |
| -1.5 | 0.51% | -0.39% | 1.42% |
| -1.25 | 0.38% | -0.71% | 1.47% |
| -1 | 0.53% | -0.61% | 1.68% |
| -0.75 | 0.45% | -0.27% | 1.17% |
| -0.5 | 0.57% | -0.51% | 1.65% |
| -0.25 | 0.55% | -0.65% | 1.75% |
| 0 | 0.61% | -0.60% | 1.81% |
| 0.25 | 0.42% | -0.45% | 1.29% |
| 0.5 | 0.40% | -0.80% | 1.59% |
| 0.75 | 0.29% | -0.95% | 1.53% |
| 1 | 0.07% | -1.00% | 1.15% |
| 1.25 | 0.01% | -1.15% | 1.18% |
| 1.5 | -0.49% | -1.85% | 0.87% |
| 1.75 | -0.42% | -1.79% | 0.95% |
| 2 | 0.35% | -0.82% | 1.53% |
Notes: Cumulative employment effects are from a regression of county private-sector employment per capita on leads and lags of a count of fulfillment centers in that county, in which the other controls are county fixed effects, state-specific time fixed effects, and county-specific linear time trends. See the Appendix for results from other specifications. Regressions are weighted by mean county population, standard errors are clustered at the county level, and the figure shows 95 percent confidence intervals. We convert the marginal effects and standard errors into percent changes in employment by dividing coefficients by the sample mean employment-to-population ratio.
Sources: Authors' calculations from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages employment data, Census population counts, and fulfillment center openings data described in the text.