Effect of opening an Amazon fulfillment center on county warehousing employment: Percent change in employment two years before and after the opening
Common time fixed effects
| Years from warehouse opening | Elasticity | Elasticity, low estimate | Elasticity, high estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | |||
| -2.25 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| -2 | 2.62% | -8.08% | 13.33% |
| -1.75 | 6.93% | -7.20% | 21.06% |
| -1.5 | 7.29% | -2.96% | 17.54% |
| -1.25 | 8.83% | -2.42% | 20.07% |
| -1 | 11.53% | -4.15% | 27.20% |
| -0.75 | 3.84% | -7.44% | 15.12% |
| -0.5 | 4.73% | -7.77% | 17.23% |
| -0.25 | 7.33% | -6.98% | 21.64% |
| 0 | 16.23% | -4.35% | 36.81% |
| 0.25 | 12.31% | -2.25% | 26.87% |
| 0.5 | 17.49% | 0.77% | 34.21% |
| 0.75 | 19.95% | -0.73% | 40.63% |
| 1 | 27.18% | -3.21% | 57.56% |
| 1.25 | 31.40% | 2.16% | 60.64% |
| 1.5 | 28.99% | -2.74% | 60.73% |
| 1.75 | 36.44% | -4.78% | 77.65% |
| 2 | 33.37% | 0.06% | 66.69% |
Division-specific time fixed effects
| Years from warehouse opening | Elasticity | Elasticity, low estimate | Elasticity, high estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | |||
| -2.25 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| -2 | 2.75% | -7.83% | 13.33% |
| -1.75 | 7.87% | -6.22% | 21.97% |
| -1.5 | 8.28% | -1.85% | 18.42% |
| -1.25 | 9.80% | -1.35% | 20.96% |
| -1 | 12.73% | -3.15% | 28.61% |
| -0.75 | 4.57% | -6.97% | 16.11% |
| -0.5 | 5.46% | -7.49% | 18.42% |
| -0.25 | 8.46% | -5.74% | 22.66% |
| 0 | 17.92% | -2.62% | 38.46% |
| 0.25 | 13.38% | -0.85% | 27.62% |
| 0.5 | 18.28% | 0.90% | 35.65% |
| 0.75 | 21.06% | 0.28% | 41.84% |
| 1 | 29.25% | -1.34% | 59.85% |
| 1.25 | 34.54% | 5.71% | 63.37% |
| 1.5 | 32.00% | -0.42% | 64.41% |
| 1.75 | 41.40% | 0.46% | 82.33% |
| 2 | 36.87% | 3.75% | 69.99% |
State-specific fixed effects
| Years from warehouse opening | Elasticity | Elasticity, low estimate | Elasticity, high estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | |||
| -2.25 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| -2 | 3.97% | -6.42% | 14.36% |
| -1.75 | 9.31% | -5.82% | 24.44% |
| -1.5 | 9.88% | 0.23% | 19.52% |
| -1.25 | 11.34% | 0.44% | 22.24% |
| -1 | 15.42% | -0.66% | 31.49% |
| -0.75 | 6.53% | -3.81% | 16.86% |
| -0.5 | 7.53% | -3.99% | 19.06% |
| -0.25 | 11.23% | -1.65% | 24.10% |
| 0 | 21.14% | 1.44% | 40.84% |
| 0.25 | 14.42% | 1.08% | 27.75% |
| 0.5 | 20.78% | 3.82% | 37.74% |
| 0.75 | 24.90% | 3.84% | 45.97% |
| 1 | 36.14% | 5.18% | 67.11% |
| 1.25 | 42.82% | 14.54% | 71.09% |
| 1.5 | 43.66% | 7.55% | 79.77% |
| 1.75 | 54.66% | 7.63% | 101.70% |
| 2 | 51.18% | 13.67% | 88.68% |
Notes: Cumulative employment effects are from a regression of county warehousing employment per capita on leads and lags of a count of fulfillment centers in that county as well as county fixed effects and county-specific linear time trends. The top, middle, and bottom panels, respectively, show specifications with common, Census division–specific, and state-specific time fixed effects. See the Appendix tables for results from other specifications. Regressions are weighted by mean county population, standard errors are clustered at the county level, and the figure shows 95 percent confidence intervals. We convert the marginal effects and standard errors into percent changes in employment by dividing coefficients by the sample mean employment-to-population ratio.
Sources: Authors' calculations from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages employment data, Census population counts, and fulfillment center openings data described in the text.