Employment impacts of steel and aluminum tariffs (jobs gained or lost)
| Predicted changes | Actual change | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade partnership (tariffs only), Mar. 2018 | Trade partnership (retaliation impacts), Jun. 2018 | Change in employment, Feb. 2018–Feb. 2020 | |
| Primary agriculture | -285 | -6,782 | N/A |
| Primary energy | -669 | 974 | 67,524 |
| Manufacturing | -2,612 | -19,931 | 210,000 |
| Processed food | -1,173 | -7,339 | 52,000 |
| Beverages and tobacco | -365 | -2,316 | N/A |
| Petroleum and coal products | -5 | -220 | -2,900 |
| Chemicals, rubber and plastics | -1,220 | -1,247 | 3,800 |
| Iron and steel, including ferrous foundries+ | 29,998 | 23,424 | 1,900 |
| Alumina and aluminum++ | 3,466 | 2,856 | 1,200 |
| Fabricated metals | -12,802 | -12,877 | 19,100 |
| Motor vehicles and parts | -5,052 | -4,917 | 12,100 |
| Other transportation equipment | -2,180 | -4,440 | N/A |
| Electronic equipment | -1,579 | 1,246 | 40,400 |
| Other machinery | -5,247 | -4,160 | 9,000 |
| Textiles | -195 | 401 | -10,900 |
| Clothing | -37 | 1,064 | -10,700 |
| Footwear and leather** | -3 | 259 | N/A |
| Wood, paper | -2,142 | -3,954 | 6,600 |
| Other goods | -4,075 | -7,712 | 88,500 |
| Services* | -142,305 | -376,706 | 3,826,000 |
| Construction* | -28,313 | -63,930 | 454,000 |
| Air transport | -353 | 78 | 18,600 |
| Water transport | -32 | -94 | 3,600 |
| Other transport | 1,484 | -1,052 | 255,600 |
| Trade and distribution | -34,065 | -98,088 | 83,500 |
| Communications | -3,675 | -8,767 | 100,000 |
| Financial services | -5,105 | -11,145 | 344,000 |
| Insurance | -1,934 | -3,983 | 174,300 |
| Business and professional services | -22,375 | -26,590 | 690,000 |
| Personal and recreational services | -10,312 | -35,033 | 1,778,000 |
| Other services | -37,625 | -128,102 | -75,600 |
| Total | -145,870 | -402,445 | 4,264,000 |
| Total nonmanufacturing | -143,258 | -382,514 | 4,054,000 |
* Construction employment included in "Services," as in Francois and Baughman (March 2018); does not match BLS total for service employment.
** Footwear and leather was included in miscellaneous goods and other, under industry code 32-32900.
+ Iron and steel includes NAICS 3311, 3312, and 33151 (ferrous foundries).
++ Includes primary alumina production, secondary aluminum smelting and alloying, and rolled and extruded products (NAICS 3313-13, -14 and -18).
Notes: Actual change (column 3) covers only nonfarm employment. Farmed employment is marked N/A (data not available).
Sources: Francois and Baughman 2018; Francois, Baughman, and Anthony 2018; BLS 2021c.