Granger causality test results: Effects of steel prices on end-use goods prices
| End-use product | k-lags | Cointegrated relationship | Causal relationship | Primary aluminum content | χ^2 | Probability of statistical significance | Estimated effect of 1% aluminum price increase after three months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beverage industry | |||||||
| Beverage manufacturing (PCU31213121) | 1 | N | N | 10% | 0.857 | 64.6% | 0.0% |
| Beverages and beverage materials (WPS026) | 2 | N | N | 0.388 | 46.7% | 0.0% | |
| Canned beer and ale case goods (PCU3121203121201) | 1 | N | N | 0.897 | 65.6% | 0.0% | |
| Aluminum cans (PCU3324313324313) | 1 | N | N | 1.240 | 73.5% | 0.0% | |
| Aluminum cans and can components (WPU10310331) | 1 | N | N | 0.857 | 64.6% | 0.0% | |
| Architectural and structural metals | |||||||
| Nonresidential construction, goods (WPUIP2312001) | 1 | N | N | 6% | 0.893 | 65.5% | 0.0% |
| Kitchen utensils | |||||||
| Stamped and spun kitchen utensils, aluminum (WPU12680101) | 3 | N | Weak | 4% | 3.038 | 91.9% | <0.1% |
| Motor vehicle parts | |||||||
| Motor vehicle body manufacturing (PCU336211336211) | 1 | N | N | 14% | 0.197 | 34.3% | 0.0% |
| Motor vehicles parts (WPU1412) | 3 | N | Y | 1% | 20.81 | 99.9% | <0.1% |
| Furniture | |||||||
| Commercial furniture (WPU122) | 1 | N | N | 3% | 0.016 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Industrial production | |||||||
| Secondary smelting and alloying of aluminum (NAICS = 331314) (IPN331314S) | 3 | N | N | NA | 0.049 | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| Misc. aluminum materials (NAICS = 331315) | 2 | N | N | NA | 0.303 | 41.8% | 0.0% |
| Aluminum extruded product (NAICS = 331318) | 3 | N | N | NA | 2.515 | 88.7% | 0.0% |
Source: Authors’ analysis of BLS (2021b, 2021c, and 2021d) and FRED (2021) data.