Job changes stemming from spending and tax cuts resulting from ACA repeal, by state
Jobs-losses from spending cuts | Job-gains from tax cuts | Net employment effects | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Medicaid | Premium + cost-sharing subsidies | Total | Total | As a number | As a share of state under-65 population | ||||
Alabama* | 3,903 | 9,241 | 13,144 | 1,684 | -11,459 | -0.3% | |||
Alaska | 1,541 | 1,466 | 3,007 | 304 | -2,702 | -0.4% | |||
Arizona | 37,026 | 7,509 | 44,535 | 2,553 | -41,982 | -0.8% | |||
Arkansas | 9,058 | 1,663 | 10,721 | 984 | -9,737 | -0.4% | |||
California | 115,973 | 47,447 | 163,420 | 21,744 | -141,676 | -0.4% | |||
Colorado | 36,118 | 1,912 | 38,030 | 2,812 | -35,217 | -0.8% | |||
Connecticut | 12,471 | 3,352 | 15,823 | 2,987 | -12,836 | -0.4% | |||
Delaware | 3,197 | 694 | 3,891 | 395 | -3,497 | -0.5% | |||
District of Columbia | 2,002 | 60 | 2,062 | 595 | -1,466 | -0.3% | |||
Florida* | 21,760 | 52,453 | 74,213 | 9,584 | -64,629 | -0.4% | |||
Georgia* | 13,724 | 15,524 | 29,249 | 4,159 | -25,090 | -0.3% | |||
Hawaii | 4,407 | 411 | 4,818 | 519 | -4,299 | -0.4% | |||
Idaho* | 2,995 | 2,846 | 5,841 | 531 | -5,310 | -0.4% | |||
Illinois | 44,269 | 9,627 | 53,896 | 6,835 | -47,060 | -0.4% | |||
Indiana | 16,504 | 3,969 | 20,473 | 2,361 | -18,111 | -0.3% | |||
Iowa | 6,423 | 1,543 | 7,966 | 1,213 | -6,753 | -0.3% | |||
Kansas* | 2,059 | 3,335 | 5,394 | 1,245 | -4,148 | -0.2% | |||
Kentucky | 55,214 | 2,220 | 57,434 | 1,485 | -55,949 | -1.5% | |||
Louisiana | 26,786 | 3,137 | 29,924 | 1,861 | -28,063 | -0.7% | |||
Maine* | 590 | 3,326 | 3,916 | 482 | -3,435 | -0.3% | |||
Maryland | 27,478 | 3,300 | 30,778 | 3,379 | -27,398 | -0.5% | |||
Massachusetts | 20,363 | 4,200 | 24,564 | 4,923 | -19,640 | -0.3% | |||
Michigan | 36,190 | 6,438 | 42,628 | 3,908 | -38,720 | -0.5% | |||
Minnesota | 17,181 | 1,414 | 18,595 | 2,790 | -15,806 | -0.3% | |||
Mississippi* | 4,508 | 4,072 | 8,579 | 896 | -7,684 | -0.3% | |||
Missouri* | 6,394 | 10,047 | 16,441 | 2,364 | -14,077 | -0.3% | |||
Montana | 10,052 | 934 | 10,986 | 387 | -10,599 | -1.3% | |||
Nebraska* | 173 | 3,403 | 3,576 | 788 | -2,788 | -0.2% | |||
Nevada | 14,804 | 2,675 | 17,479 | 1,147 | -16,332 | -0.7% | |||
New Hampshire | 4,738 | 737 | 5,475 | 675 | -4,801 | -0.4% | |||
New Jersey | 62,832 | 5,203 | 68,036 | 6,492 | -61,544 | -0.8% | |||
New Mexico | 31,697 | 797 | 32,494 | 641 | -31,853 | -1.8% | |||
New York | 57,115 | 7,638 | 64,753 | 12,550 | -52,203 | -0.3% | |||
North Carolina* | 23,532 | 29,334 | 52,865 | 3,941 | -48,925 | -0.6% | |||
North Dakota | 2,434 | 463 | 2,897 | 437 | -2,460 | -0.4% | |||
Ohio | 50,375 | 4,586 | 54,962 | 4,619 | -50,343 | -0.5% | |||
Oklahoma* | 1,944 | 5,898 | 7,842 | 1,488 | -6,354 | -0.2% | |||
Oregon | 41,432 | 2,537 | 43,970 | 1,621 | -42,348 | -1.3% | |||
Pennsylvania | 27,117 | 10,244 | 37,361 | 5,974 | -31,387 | -0.3% | |||
Rhode Island | 8,007 | 514 | 8,521 | 486 | -8,036 | -0.9% | |||
South Carolina* | 1,267 | 8,152 | 9,419 | 1,726 | -7,693 | -0.2% | |||
South Dakota* | 302 | 900 | 1,203 | 377 | -825 | -0.1% | |||
Tennessee* | 18,146 | 8,281 | 26,426 | 2,549 | -23,877 | -0.4% | |||
Texas* | 18,866 | 34,769 | 53,634 | 13,084 | -40,550 | -0.2% | |||
Utah* | 1,671 | 2,469 | 4,139 | 1,036 | -3,104 | -0.1% | |||
Vermont | 2,463 | 789 | 3,251 | 260 | -2,991 | -0.6% | |||
Virginia* | 2,938 | 11,778 | 14,716 | 4,473 | -10,243 | -0.1% | |||
Washington | 44,644 | 3,643 | 48,287 | 3,633 | -44,654 | -0.7% | |||
West Virginia | 14,560 | 1,406 | 15,965 | 554 | -15,412 | -1.0% | |||
Wisconsin* | 2,261 | 8,366 | 10,627 | 2,337 | -8,290 | -0.2% | |||
Wyoming* | 144 | 1,303 | 1,447 | 278 | -1,168 | -0.2% | |||
Totals | 971,650 | 358,024 | 1,329,674 | 154,151 | -1,175,524 | -0.49% |
* Medicaid non-expansion states
Source: Based on data from Table 1 as well as multipliers from Bivens and Fieldhouse (2012) and Chodorow-Reich et al. (2012) and methods outlined in Bivens (2014), as described in the text and the technical appendix