Projected spending and tax cuts stemming from ACA repeal in 2019, by state

Effect in $ millions Effect as share of state GDP
Types of spending cuts Tax cuts Types of spending cuts Tax cuts
Medicaid Premium subsidies Cost-sharing subsidies Total Medicaid Premium subsidies Cost-sharing subsidies Total
Alabama* 271 931 147 1,349 768 0.14% 0.47% 0.07% 0.68% 0.38%
Alaska 107 150 21 278 139 0.20% 0.28% 0.04% 0.53% 0.26%
Arizona 2,571 827 49 3,447 1,163 0.88% 0.28% 0.02% 1.18% 0.40%
Arkansas 629 159 35 823 449 0.53% 0.13% 0.03% 0.69% 0.38%
California 8,053 4,783 752 13,588 9,908 0.32% 0.19% 0.03% 0.55% 0.40%
Colorado 2,508 190 33 2,731 1,282 0.80% 0.06% 0.01% 0.87% 0.41%
Connecticut 866 348 43 1,257 1,361 0.34% 0.14% 0.02% 0.50% 0.54%
Delaware 222 71 10 303 180 0.32% 0.10% 0.01% 0.44% 0.26%
District of Columbia 139 7 0 146 271 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.12% 0.22%
Florida* 1,511 5,106 1,013 7,630 4,367 0.17% 0.57% 0.11% 0.86% 0.49%
Georgia* 953 1,430 381 2,764 1,895 0.19% 0.29% 0.08% 0.56% 0.38%
Hawaii 306 42 6 354 236 0.38% 0.05% 0.01% 0.44% 0.29%
Idaho* 208 276 56 540 242 0.32% 0.42% 0.09% 0.82% 0.37%
Illinois 3,074 1,001 122 4,197 3,115 0.40% 0.13% 0.02% 0.54% 0.40%
Indiana 1,146 385 78 1,609 1,076 0.34% 0.11% 0.02% 0.48% 0.32%
Iowa 446 156 24 626 553 0.26% 0.09% 0.01% 0.36% 0.32%
Kansas* 143 329 60 532 568 0.10% 0.22% 0.04% 0.36% 0.38%
Kentucky 3,834 213 46 4,093 677 1.98% 0.11% 0.02% 2.12% 0.35%
Louisiana 1,860 316 50 2,226 848 0.78% 0.13% 0.02% 0.93% 0.35%
Maine* 41 331 57 429 220 0.07% 0.58% 0.10% 0.75% 0.38%
Maryland 1,908 332 53 2,293 1,540 0.52% 0.09% 0.01% 0.63% 0.42%
Massachusetts 1,414 415 75 1,904 2,244 0.29% 0.09% 0.02% 0.39% 0.46%
Michigan 2,513 633 118 3,264 1,781 0.54% 0.14% 0.03% 0.70% 0.38%
Minnesota 1,193 163 2 1,358 1,271 0.36% 0.05% 0.00% 0.41% 0.39%
Mississippi* 313 390 85 788 408 0.30% 0.37% 0.08% 0.74% 0.39%
Missouri* 444 960 212 1,616 1,077 0.15% 0.33% 0.07% 0.55% 0.37%
Montana 698 97 12 807 177 1.54% 0.21% 0.03% 1.78% 0.39%
Nebraska* 12 345 52 409 359 0.01% 0.30% 0.05% 0.36% 0.32%
Nevada 1,028 262 50 1,340 523 0.74% 0.19% 0.04% 0.96% 0.37%
New Hampshire 329 70 16 415 307 0.45% 0.09% 0.02% 0.56% 0.42%
New Jersey 4,363 513 94 4,970 2,958 0.77% 0.09% 0.02% 0.88% 0.52%
New Mexico 2,201 77 16 2,294 292 2.36% 0.08% 0.02% 2.46% 0.31%
New York 3,966 771 120 4,857 5,719 0.28% 0.05% 0.01% 0.34% 0.40%
North Carolina* 1,634 2,947 475 5,056 1,796 0.33% 0.59% 0.10% 1.02% 0.36%
North Dakota 169 47 7 223 199 0.30% 0.08% 0.01% 0.40% 0.36%
Ohio 3,498 438 97 4,033 2,105 0.57% 0.07% 0.02% 0.66% 0.34%
Oklahoma* 135 601 87 823 678 0.07% 0.32% 0.05% 0.44% 0.36%
Oregon 2,877 255 41 3,173 739 1.32% 0.12% 0.02% 1.46% 0.34%
Pennsylvania 1,883 1,074 121 3,078 2,722 0.27% 0.15% 0.02% 0.43% 0.38%
Rhode Island 556 50 10 616 221 0.99% 0.09% 0.02% 1.10% 0.39%
South Carolina* 88 787 164 1,039 787 0.04% 0.39% 0.08% 0.52% 0.39%
South Dakota* 21 90 15 126 172 0.04% 0.19% 0.03% 0.27% 0.36%
Tennessee* 1,260 834 132 2,226 1,162 0.40% 0.26% 0.04% 0.70% 0.37%
Texas* 1,310 3,234 822 5,366 5,962 0.08% 0.20% 0.05% 0.33% 0.37%
Utah* 116 242 46 404 472 0.08% 0.16% 0.03% 0.27% 0.32%
Vermont 171 83 9 263 118 0.57% 0.28% 0.03% 0.88% 0.39%
Virginia* 204 1,122 252 1,578 2,038 0.04% 0.23% 0.05% 0.33% 0.42%
Washington 3,100 352 73 3,525 1,656 0.70% 0.08% 0.02% 0.79% 0.37%
West Virginia 1,011 143 21 1,175 252 1.36% 0.19% 0.03% 1.58% 0.34%
Wisconsin* 157 837 139 1,133 1,065 0.05% 0.28% 0.05% 0.38% 0.35%
Wyoming* 10 122 30 162 127 0.03% 0.31% 0.08% 0.41% 0.32%
Totals 67,470 35,337 6,429 109,236 70,245 0.47% 0.21% 0.04% 0.72% 0.37%

* Medicaid non-expansion states

Source: Data from Blumberg, Buettgens, and Holahan (2016), Tax Policy Center (2016), Frank (2017), and tabulations from the American Community Survey (ACS) as described in the text and the technical appendix.

View the underlying data on epi.org.