Estimated effects of a New York state minimum-wage increase to $15 by 2021, by step and region of the state
| Simulated increases | Total estimated workers1 | Directly affected2 | Indirectly affected3 | Total affected | Total affected as a share of all workers | Increase in total annual wages for directly and indirectly affected4 (nominal) | Increase in total annual wages for directly and indirectly affected (2014$) | Cumulative change in average hourly wage of affected workers (nominal dollars) | Cumulative change in average hourly wage of affected workers (2014$) | Cumulative change in average annual income of affected workers (nominal dollars) | Cumulative change in average annual income of affected workers (2014$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full state | |||||||||||
| April 1, 2016: $10.50 in NYC, $9.75 outside NYC | 8,565,000 | 1,600,000 | 460,000 | 2,060,000 | 24.1% | $2,492,021 | $2,435,445 | $0.73 | $0.72 | $1,209 | $1,182 |
| December 31, 2016: $12.00 in NYC, $10.75 outside NYC | 8,574,000 | 1,888,000 | 511,000 | 2,399,000 | 28.0% | $5,513,794 | $5,388,615 | $1.39 | $1.36 | $2,298 | $2,246 |
| December 31, 2017: $13.50 in NYC, $11.75 outside NYC | 8,588,000 | 2,158,000 | 523,000 | 2,681,000 | 31.2% | $8,819,887 | $8,409,333 | $1.98 | $1.88 | $3,290 | $3,137 |
| December 31, 2018: $15.00 in NYC, $12.75 outside NYC | 8,601,000 | 2,349,000 | 554,000 | 2,903,000 | 33.8% | $12,546,922 | $11,654,338 | $2.58 | $2.40 | $4,322 | $4,015 |
| December 31, 2019: $15.41 in NYC, $13.75 outside NYC* | 8,615,000 | 2,428,000 | 587,000 | 3,015,000 | 35.0% | $14,353,557 | $12,984,245 | $2.86 | $2.58 | $4,759 | $4,305 |
| December 31, 2020: $15.82 in NYC, $14.50 outside NYC* | 8,629,000 | 2,439,000 | 658,000 | 3,097,000 | 35.9% | $15,915,305 | $14,019,166 | $3.09 | $2.72 | $5,139 | $4,527 |
| July 1, 2021: $16.25 in NYC, $15.00 outside NYC* | 8,636,000 | 2,415,000 | 747,000 | 3,162,000 | 36.6% | $17,832,642 | $15,301,032 | $3.39 | $2.91 | $5,639 | $4,839 |
| Total (including indexed values)* | 8,636,000 | 2,415,000 | 747,000 | 3,162,000 | 36.6% | $17,832,642 | $15,301,032 | $3.39 | $2.91 | $5,639 | $4,839 |
| New York City | |||||||||||
| April 1, 2016: $10.50 | 4,113,000 | 789,000 | 200,000 | 989,000 | 24.0% | $1,640,940 | $1,603,686 | $0.95 | $0.93 | $1,659 | $1,621 |
| December 31, 2016: $12.00 | 4,117,000 | 929,000 | 209,000 | 1,138,000 | 27.6% | $3,582,401 | $3,501,070 | $1.80 | $1.76 | $3,148 | $3,077 |
| December 31, 2017: $13.50 | 4,124,000 | 1,083,000 | 217,000 | 1,300,000 | 31.5% | $5,716,596 | $5,450,496 | $2.50 | $2.38 | $4,398 | $4,193 |
| December 31, 2018: $15.00 | 4,131,000 | 1,177,000 | 242,000 | 1,419,000 | 34.4% | $8,132,978 | $7,554,401 | $3.25 | $3.02 | $5,733 | $5,326 |
| December 31, 2019: $15.41* | 4,137,000 | 1,142,000 | 279,000 | 1,421,000 | 34.3% | $8,504,847 | $7,693,495 | $3.39 | $3.06 | $5,984 | $5,413 |
| December 31, 2020: $15.82* | 4,144,000 | 1,144,000 | 279,000 | 1,423,000 | 34.3% | $8,855,881 | $7,800,797 | $3.52 | $3.10 | $6,221 | $5,480 |
| July 1, 2021: $16.25* | 4,147,000 | 1,145,000 | 298,000 | 1,443,000 | 34.8% | $9,545,460 | $8,190,339 | $3.74 | $3.21 | $6,614 | $5,675 |
| Total (including indexed values)* | 4,147,000 | 1,145,000 | 298,000 | 1,443,000 | 34.8% | $9,545,460 | $8,190,339 | $3.74 | $3.21 | $6,777 | $5,675 |
| Total (excluding indexed values)* | 4,131,000 | 1,177,000 | 242,000 | 1,419,000 | 34.4% | $8,132,978 | $7,554,401 | $3.25 | $3.02 | $5,733 | $5,326 |
| Areas outside New York City | |||||||||||
| April 1, 2016: $9.75 outside NYC | 4,452,000 | 811,000 | 261,000 | 1,072,000 | 24.1% | $851,081 | $831,759 | $0.53 | $0.52 | $794 | $776 |
| December 31, 2016: $10.75 outside NYC | 4,456,000 | 959,000 | 302,000 | 1,261,000 | 28.3% | $1,931,394 | $1,887,546 | $1.02 | $0.99 | $1,532 | $1,497 |
| December 31, 2017: $11.75 outside NYC | 4,464,000 | 1,074,000 | 306,000 | 1,380,000 | 30.9% | $3,103,290 | $2,958,836 | $1.48 | $1.41 | $2,248 | $2,143 |
| December 31, 2018: $12.75 outside NYC | 4,471,000 | 1,172,000 | 312,000 | 1,484,000 | 33.2% | $4,413,944 | $4,099,938 | $1.95 | $1.81 | $2,974 | $2,762 |
| December 31, 2019: $13.75 outside NYC | 4,478,000 | 1,286,000 | 308,000 | 1,594,000 | 35.6% | $5,848,710 | $5,290,750 | $2.38 | $2.16 | $3,668 | $3,318 |
| December 31, 2020: $14.50 outside NYC | 4,485,000 | 1,295,000 | 379,000 | 1,674,000 | 37.3% | $7,059,424 | $6,218,369 | $2.73 | $2.40 | $4,218 | $3,716 |
| July 1, 2021: $15.00 outside NYC | 4,489,000 | 1,270,000 | 449,000 | 1,719,000 | 38.3% | $8,287,182 | $7,110,693 | $3.10 | $2.66 | $4,821 | $4,136 |
| Total | 4,489,000 | 1,270,000 | 449,000 | 1,719,000 | 38.3% | $8,287,182 | $7,110,693 | $3.10 | $2.66 | $4,821 | $4,136 |
| 1 Total estimated workers is estimated from the ACS respondents who were 16 years old or older, employed, but not self-employed, and for whom a valid hourly wage can be imputed from annual wage earnings, usual hours worked per week, and weeks worked in the previous year. | |||||||||||
| 2 Directly affected workers will see their wages rise, as the new minimum-wage rate will exceed their current hourly pay. | |||||||||||
| 3 Indirectly affected workers have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage and 115 percent of the new minimum). They will receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage. | |||||||||||
| 4 Total amount of increased annual wages for directly and indirectly affected workers. | |||||||||||
* For the final three steps (2019–2021), it is assumed the New York City minimum wage is indexed to inflation.
Projections for inflation made using NY State Budget Office projections for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for consumers in New York State. Assumed annual working age population growth is 0.154% (2015-2025 annualized population growth rate projections from Cornell Population Center (N.d.).) Assumed annual nominal wage growth of 0.03% leading up to the first step (NY average annual wage growth of bottom 20% of wage earners from 2010-2014, according to CPS ORG), prorated to the number of months between the midpoint of the data year and the first increase. In subsequent steps, wages are assumed to grow at the projected annual pace of NYS consumer price inflation, per the state budget office: 2.0% in 2016, 2.5% in 2017, 2.6% in 2018, 2.7% in 2019, 2020, and 2021, prorated to the number of months between increases. Some workers indirectly affected in earlier steps will be directly-affected in later steps thus the final step totals describe all workers affected as a result of the increases. Wage increase amounts are cumulative totals from all steps, except as indicated.
Source: EPI analysis of American Community Survey microdata, 2014