Poverty is a policy choice: State-level data show pandemic safety net programs prevented a rise in poverty in every state
The year 2021 proved to be a remarkable showcase of the power of public policies in alleviating economic hardship. This week, the Census Bureau released data from the 2021 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplements (CPS ASEC) detailing poverty and other economic conditions across the country. The data revealed that social insurance programs—like Social Security, economic stimulus checks, a strengthened unemployment insurance (UI) system, and the expanded Child Tax Credit—kept more than 25 million people out of poverty. State lawmakers should do everything in their power to revive these programs.
Differences in the supplemental and official poverty measures highlight the impact of pandemic support programs
In 2011, the Census Bureau began annually releasing an additional poverty measure called the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM). Although imperfect, the SPM is a much better measure of poverty than the official poverty rate. SPM accounts for major government benefits like Social Security and child tax credits, and uses a more holistic measurement of modern costs of living and geographical differences in those costs. The latest data show that the 2021 SPM rates are the lowest on record for all years for which SPM estimates are available, starting from 2009. This is even more remarkable considering that the economic hardships and disruptions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic were still very present during 2021.
The impact of government safety net programs can be seen across the country, as the SPM was lower than the official poverty rate in 38 states when looking at a 3-year average of 2019–2021. (To ensure accurate comparison, the official estimates used for the comparison are based on an expanded definition of the official poverty rate that includes all the people within the universe of the SPM.) In fact, the SPM was higher (where the difference was statistically significant) than the official poverty measure in just three states (California, Maryland, and New Jersey), likely a reflection of these states’ higher costs of living.
Comparing the 2019–2021 estimates to 2017–2019 rates, poverty as measured by the SPM decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The state SPM poverty rate fell the most in Louisiana, by 4.5 percentage points. This is followed by New Jersey and Maine, which saw 4.4 and 4.2 percentage point decreases, respectively. Unfortunately, the state-level SPM estimates are not disaggregated by race/ethnicity. See analysis by Valerie Wilson and Adewale A. Maye for a discussion of the racial disparities in poverty rates at the national level, as well as the impact of safety net programs as told by differences in the two poverty measures.
Despite the massive economic hardships from the pandemic, anti-poverty programs resulted in the 3-year average supplemental poverty measure not increasing in any state: Share below supplemental poverty measure by state, 2017–2019 average to 2019–2021 average
| State | 2019–2017 below SPM share | 2021–2019 below SPM share | Percentage point change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 13.1% | 10.3% | -2.8% |
| Alaska | 12.3% | 9.8% | -2.5% |
| Arizona | 12.0% | 9.0% | -3.0% |
| Arkansas | 12.5% | 9.7% | -2.8% |
| California | 17.2% | 13.2% | -4.0% |
| Colorado | 11.3% | 9.4% | -1.9% |
| Connecticut | 11.2% | 9.0% | -2.2% |
| Delaware | 10.5% | 8.4% | -2.1% |
| Washington D.C. | 16.7% | 14.6% | -2.1% |
| Florida | 15.4% | 11.9% | -3.5% |
| Georgia | 13.3% | 10.2% | -3.1% |
| Hawaii | 13.4% | 10.5% | -2.9% |
| Idaho | 8.4% | 6.0% | -2.4% |
| Illinois | 11.4% | 7.8% | -3.6% |
| Indiana | 10.3% | 7.4% | -2.9% |
| Iowa | 6.7% | 6.0% | -0.7% |
| Kansas | 7.4% | 6.0% | -1.4% |
| Kentucky | 11.2% | 9.9% | -1.3% |
| Louisiana | 16.2% | 11.7% | -4.5% |
| Maine | 9.6% | 5.4% | -4.2% |
| Maryland | 12.0% | 9.6% | -2.4% |
| Massachusetts | 11.2% | 8.0% | -3.2% |
| Michigan | 9.7% | 7.6% | -2.1% |
| Minnesota | 6.5% | 5.1% | -1.4% |
| Mississippi | 15.2% | 11.9% | -3.3% |
| Missouri | 9.2% | 7.5% | -1.7% |
| Montana | 8.9% | 8.2% | -0.7% |
| Nebraska | 9.2% | 6.2% | -3.0% |
| Nevada | 13.4% | 9.3% | -4.1% |
| New Hampshire | 8.3% | 5.5% | -2.8% |
| New Jersey | 12.5% | 8.1% | -4.4% |
| New Mexico | 13.6% | 10.6% | -3.0% |
| New York | 14.4% | 12.1% | -2.3% |
| North Carolina | 13.1% | 9.9% | -3.2% |
| North Dakota | 9.3% | 7.1% | -2.2% |
| Ohio | 10.1% | 8.1% | -2.0% |
| Oklahoma | 10.7% | 9.1% | -1.6% |
| Oregon | 11.0% | 7.0% | -4.0% |
| Pennsylvania | 10.9% | 7.6% | -3.3% |
| Rhode Island | 7.3% | 6.0% | -1.3% |
| South Carolina | 13.1% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| South Dakota | 9.2% | 6.2% | -3.0% |
| Tennessee | 11.0% | 9.1% | -1.9% |
| Texas | 13.7% | 10.4% | -3.3% |
| Utah | 8.0% | 6.5% | -1.5% |
| Vermont | 9.4% | 6.9% | -2.5% |
| Virginia | 11.5% | 8.6% | -2.9% |
| Washington | 9.0% | 7.0% | -2.0% |
| West Virginia | 13.3% | 9.4% | -3.9% |
| Wisconsin | 7.5% | 5.4% | -2.1% |
| Wyoming | 9.5% | 7.3% | -2.2% |
Source: EPI analysis of The Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2019 and
Poverty in the United States: 2021.
The official poverty rate changed little across the states in 2021
The 1-year estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) allow for year-to-year comparisons of economic conditions at the state level. However, given the disruptions to data collection and quality the pandemic caused, we compare 2021 data to estimates from 2019. Unfortunately, the ACS only reports the official poverty rates and thus SPM estimates are not available in published data at the state level for a one-year period. This is notable for 2021 because, as discussed above, the most striking changes in poverty occurred because of social insurance programs, many of which are not captured by the official poverty measure.
As shown in Figure B, in 2021, the official poverty rate at the state level was highest in Louisiana (19.6%), Mississippi (19.4%), New Mexico (18.4%), and West Virginia (16.8%). The official poverty rate was lowest in New Hampshire (7.2%), Utah (8.6%), Minnesota (9.3%), and Colorado (9.7%). Comparing 2019 to 2021 estimates, official poverty rates did not dramatically change in most states—in 44 states, the increase or decrease was less than a percentage point. The biggest change was in the District of Columbia, where the rate increased by 3 percentage points, from 13.5% in 2019 to 16.5% in 2021.
With its lack of accounting of major government support programs, the 2021 official poverty rate changed little across states: Total share and child share below official poverty line by state, 2019–2021
| State | 2019 share below official poverty line | 2021 share below official poverty line | 2019 to 2021 percentage point change in official poverty | 2019 child share below official poverty line | 2021 child share below official poverty line | 2019 to 2021 percentage point change in official child poverty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 15.5% | 16.1% | 0.6% | 21.4% | 22.2% | 0.8% |
| Alaska | 10.1% | 10.5% | 0.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% | -0.6% |
| Arizona | 13.5% | 12.8% | -0.7% | 19.1% | 17.3% | -1.8% |
| Arkansas | 16.2% | 16.3% | 0.1% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 0.3% |
| California | 11.8% | 12.3% | 0.5% | 15.6% | 15.8% | 0.2% |
| Colorado | 9.3% | 9.7% | 0.4% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 0.9% |
| Connecticut | 10.0% | 10.1% | 0.1% | 14.1% | 12.7% | -1.4% |
| Delaware | 11.3% | 11.6% | 0.3% | 16.4% | 16.8% | 0.4% |
| Washington D.C. | 13.5% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 18.9% | 23.9% | 5.0% |
| Florida | 12.7% | 13.1% | 0.4% | 17.7% | 17.8% | 0.1% |
| Georgia | 13.3% | 14.0% | 0.7% | 18.7% | 20.2% | 1.5% |
| Hawaii | 9.3% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 1.2% |
| Idaho | 11.2% | 11.0% | -0.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | -0.1% |
| Illinois | 11.5% | 12.1% | 0.6% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 0.3% |
| Indiana | 11.9% | 12.2% | 0.3% | 15.2% | 16.0% | 0.8% |
| Iowa | 11.2% | 11.1% | -0.1% | 13.0% | 12.5% | -0.5% |
| Kansas | 11.4% | 11.7% | 0.3% | 14.7% | 13.4% | -1.3% |
| Kentucky | 16.3% | 16.5% | 0.2% | 21.7% | 22.1% | 0.4% |
| Louisiana | 19.0% | 19.6% | 0.6% | 27.0% | 26.9% | -0.1% |
| Maine | 10.9% | 11.5% | 0.6% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 1.3% |
| Maryland | 9.0% | 10.3% | 1.3% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 2.0% |
| Massachusetts | 9.4% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 1.0% |
| Michigan | 13.0% | 13.1% | 0.1% | 17.6% | 17.8% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota | 9.0% | 9.3% | 0.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | -0.4% |
| Mississippi | 19.6% | 19.4% | -0.2% | 28.1% | 27.7% | -0.4% |
| Missouri | 12.9% | 12.7% | -0.2% | 17.1% | 16.2% | -0.9% |
| Montana | 12.6% | 11.9% | -0.7% | 14.9% | 14.1% | -0.8% |
| Nebraska | 9.9% | 10.8% | 0.9% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% |
| Nevada | 12.5% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 16.9% | 18.8% | 1.9% |
| New Hampshire | 7.3% | 7.2% | -0.1% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% |
| New Jersey | 9.2% | 10.2% | 1.0% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 1.9% |
| New Mexico | 18.2% | 18.4% | 0.2% | 24.9% | 23.9% | -1.0% |
| New York | 13.0% | 13.9% | 0.9% | 18.1% | 18.5% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | 13.6% | 13.4% | -0.2% | 19.5% | 18.1% | -1.4% |
| North Dakota | 10.6% | 11.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 0.3% |
| Ohio | 13.1% | 13.4% | 0.3% | 18.4% | 18.6% | 0.2% |
| Oklahoma | 15.2% | 15.6% | 0.4% | 19.9% | 21.2% | 1.3% |
| Oregon | 11.4% | 12.2% | 0.8% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.4% |
| Pennsylvania | 12.0% | 12.1% | 0.1% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Rhode Island | 10.8% | 11.4% | 0.6% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 1.0% |
| South Carolina | 13.8% | 14.6% | 0.8% | 19.7% | 20.1% | 0.4% |
| South Dakota | 11.9% | 12.3% | 0.4% | 15.0% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| Tennessee | 13.9% | 13.6% | -0.3% | 19.7% | 18.1% | -1.6% |
| Texas | 13.6% | 14.2% | 0.6% | 19.2% | 19.6% | 0.4% |
| Utah | 8.9% | 8.6% | -0.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | -1.8% |
| Vermont | 10.2% | 10.3% | 0.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 0.2% |
| Virginia | 9.9% | 10.2% | 0.3% | 13.4% | 13.1% | -0.3% |
| Washington | 9.8% | 9.9% | 0.1% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| West Virginia | 16.0% | 16.8% | 0.8% | 20.1% | 20.7% | 0.6% |
| Wisconsin | 10.4% | 10.8% | 0.4% | 13.5% | 13.4% | -0.1% |
| Wyoming | 10.1% | 11.4% | 1.3% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 1.8% |
Source: EPI analysis of 2019 and 2021 1-year American Community Survey data.
The state-level official poverty rates do not capture the drastic impact of tax credit expansions on child poverty
From the Census Bureau’s national poverty report based on 2021 ASEC data, we know that child poverty across the country fell to a historic low of 5.2%, as measured by the SPM. This is directly because of the expansion of anti-poverty programs at the height of the pandemic, including the Child Tax Credit (CTC).
A remarkable 9.6 million people, including 4.9 million children, were kept out of poverty by refundable tax credits. The Child Tax Credit alone accounted for 5.3 million people kept out of poverty (out of the 9.6 million total).
In contrast, according to the official poverty rate, child poverty at the national level sits at 15.3%. (To ensure accurate comparison, this estimate is based on an expanded definition of the official poverty rate that includes all the people within the universe of the SPM). As noted earlier, the official poverty rate does not account for the CTC and other government programs that saw great temporary expansions during the height of the pandemic. Unfortunately, the state-level child poverty rates published from the 2021 1-year ACS data are all based on the official poverty measure. The map in Figure B reports ACS child poverty rates in every state as measured by the official poverty measure. There are no published state-level SPM child poverty rates.
State lawmakers should prioritize proven poverty-reduction programs
Federal lawmakers made powerful improvements to the safety net in response to the pandemic. Bolstered unemployment insurance and expanded child tax credits, combined with existing federal supports such as Social Security and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), kept millions of people out of poverty in 2021. With many of these programs expired and no indication that federal lawmakers will restore them soon, state policymakers should step in to build on the success of these policies that visibly lessened working people’s economic hardships and bolstered state economies. Many states still have federal funds available to them that they should use to set up programs that support working families and children. These programs should be made permanent by enacting progressive tax revenue collections that provide dedicated funding. Specific policies include enacting permanent UI reform, making the child tax credit permanently refundable, and increasing funding for and undoing the racist legacies of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF).
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