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Last twelve months of job growth trail similar periods of previous expansions

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Snapshot for July 20, 2005.

Last twelve months of job growth trail similar periods of previous expansions

In June 2005 there were 1.6 % more payroll jobs in the economy than there were in June 2004.  This rate of job growth was faster than the 0.5% annual rate of job growth from the end of the last recession (November 2001) through June 2004.  But compared to the same time period in previous expansions, the last 12 months have had the lowest record of job growth of any of the five post-World War II recoveries that have lasted as long as the current expansion (43 months).

Job change from June 2004 to June 2005 compared to previous cycles at this stage

The average rate of job creation at this stage of the previous five expansions is 3.4%.  But the rate of job creation for the same time period in the current expansion (at 1.6%) is less than half the average rate. Since job growth lagged the average of 8.4% for the first 31 months of the current expansion compared to the previous expansions, it would have been healthier if the current recovery had created more jobs over the next 12-month period and narrowed the gap in the rate of job creation for previous expansions.  Instead, the economy is still failing to add jobs at the same rate as in previous expansions.  While 2 million payroll jobs were added between June 2004 and June 2005, 4.4 million payroll jobs would have been added had this 12-month period kept pace with the average job growth of 3.4% seen in previous expansions.

Today’s Snapshot was written by EPI Research Director Lee Price and Research Assistant Sujan Vasavada.


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