Research and Policy Director
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August 26, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogRecent volatility in stock markets in the U.S. and globally has led many economic observers to conclude that the Federal Reserve is less likely to begin raising short-term interest rates at its September meetings. I’ve been on Team Don’t Raise for a while now, but I’m not excited about those joining the cause in light of recent stock market swings.
August 24, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogThe stock market has taken a hit in the past few days, with concern over the Chinese economy driving a big selloff. How worried should we be? The short answer is: not very.
August 19, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogCatherine Rampell wrote a piece having some fun with the bidding war among GOP candidates about how much they can promise to raise economic growth rates.
August 14, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogIn the Washington Post Fact Checker column today, Glenn Kessler got really exercised about Bernie Sanders’ totally accurate description of a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on job losses that will occur if spending caps in the Budget Control Act (BCA) are not loosened in coming years.
July 30, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogToday’s report on gross domestic product (GDP)—the widest measure of economic activity—does not paint an encouraging picture of America’s past or present economic health.
July 30, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Press ReleasesToday’s report that gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.3 percent rate in the second quarter of 2015 is clearly an improvement over the 0.6 percent growth in the first quarter, but it indicates that growth for 2015 is likely to be disappointing.
The Federal Reserve Can Help Close Gender and Racial Wage Gaps by Pursuing Full Employment: Report from the Center for Popular Democracy and the Economic Policy Institute
July 16, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Working PaperThe Federal Reserve can contribute to closing gender and racial wage gaps by setting a clear target for wage growth and not considering an interest-rate hike until wage growth has strengthened.
July 8, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Fact SheetThe Fed’s priorities should be spurring full employment and creating space for healthy wage growth.
July 3, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogThe overtime rules the Obama administration announced Tuesday target genuine problems that middle-wage households face. They also do not require approval from Congress.
June 15, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Working PaperThis paper by EPI Research and Policy Director Josh Bivens was written for the Full Employment Project of Policy Futures, a new initiative at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
June 9, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Briefing PaperThe Environmental Protection Agency's proposed Clean Power Plan mandating reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants would likely lead to a net increase of roughly 360,000 jobs in 2020, with jobs added falling to roughly 15,000 in 2030.
On Substance, Martin O’Malley Was Right About American Wages: Don’t Let Nitpicks Convince You That There Is Not A Crisis in American Pay
June 8, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogThree separate sources have recently “fact-checked” claims that Martin O’Malley made about American wages in his recent speech announcing his candidacy for the Democratic nomination.
June 2, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | VideoOn June 1, EPI Research and Policy Director Josh Bivens presented a report at the Brookings Institution on how monetary policy influences income inequality.
June 1, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Working PaperIn a recent working paper presented at a symposium at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, EPI Research Director Josh Bivens assesses claims that the Federal Reserve’s very low interest rates and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), commonly known as quantitative easing, increased inequality by driving up the price of stocks and other assets.
May 28, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogIn today’s U.S. economy, trade deficit reductions engineered by ending currency management would boost U.S. output and employment, and trade deficit reductions will (all else equal) always and everywhere boost manufacturing employment.
A Budget Informed by the Past, Present, and Future of the Economy: Josh Bivens at the Peterson Fiscal Summit
May 19, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | VideoEPI Research and Policy Director Josh Bivens talks about creating a budget based on lessons of inequality in the past, recovery in the present, and priorities for the future.
May 18, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogThe New York Times’ Binyamin Appelbaum wrote an excellent piece yesterday on the costs and benefits of globalization. But because I’ve thought a lot about this topic, I have some hobby-horse issues concerning how economists characterize how large the gains from trade are and how its gains and losses are distributed.
May 15, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogAs Jeff Faux notes, we seem to have reached the part of the debate over the TPP when facts and evidence have largely given way to table-pounding.
May 8, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogRecent debates over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have highlighted the failure of the treaty to include a provision to stop countries from actively weakening the value of their own currency in order to run trade surpluses.
May 8, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogRecent weeks have seen a raft of pretty bad economic news. Last month’s jobs report showed a marked slowdown in employment growth—with 126,000 new jobs reported in March, down from the 269,000 average pace of growth that had characterized the previous 12 months. And gross domestic product in the first quarter was essentially stagnant—rising at just a 0.2 percent annualized rate. March trade data showed an enormous rise in the trade deficit, which will likely drive the revised numbers on GDP into negative territory. Given this backdrop, there was a bit more at stake than usual in today’s monthly jobs report. So, what’s the verdict? Mixed.
May 8, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Economic IndicatorsToday’s employment report shows that the economy added 223,000 jobs in April while unemployment ticked down slightly. This provides some evidence that the fundamental pace of the recovery has likely not significantly slowed since the end of 2014—but this is no cause for celebration.
May 5, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogThe White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a report last Friday touting the benefits of international trade for the American economy.
Stagnant GDP at the Start of 2015 is the Latest Evidence That the Economy Hasn’t Reached Escape Velocity
April 29, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogThe Commerce Department estimates that U.S. gross domestic product was near stagnant in the first three months of 2015, further evidence that the U.S. economy has not reached escape velocity. At a minimum, this means the Federal Reserve should put off interest rate increases for the rest of 2015.
April 22, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogPresident Obama has been vociferously defending the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) recently. He insists that it will be good for the American middle class and that TPP’s critics arguing otherwise are wrong.
April 16, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | Briefing PaperThe Trans-Pacific Partnership will likely constitute one more step toward using commercial agreements to maximize three things: (1) the damage done through global integration to the wages of most American workers; (2) the rents earned by those holding a monopoly on intellectual property claims; and (3) the influence that the preferences of global economic elites have on the policymaking of American trading partners.
March 27, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogAs I’ve noted before, as trade agreements and other legislation (Trade Promotion Authority, or TPA) get debated, you’ll see more and more bad arguments in favor of them.
March 19, 2015 | By Josh Bivens | BlogIt was widely reported yesterday that the word “patient” was dropped from the Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy. But too much focus on this one word might lead one to miss the forest through the trees.