Still a “Perfect Match”—Increasing Tax Fairness to Finance Job Creation

Last year, EPI fiscal policy analyst Ethan Pollack released a report showing that a number of revenue increases called for in the Congressional Progressive Caucus’s (CPC) annual budget could support truly significant job-creation programs. Ethan specifically estimated job gains stemming from using the revenue to support infrastructure projects.

Besides national numbers, he also broke down job-gains by every state. We decided to update these numbers with revenue estimates the last CPC budget, just to remind people that even if it is decided (mistakenly) that the budget deficit is too large and cannot be allowed to rise to support job creation programs, these programs can still be funded with progressive tax increases and create jobs (less efficiently than if funded by deficits, but still significant job creators on net).

Our call for financing deficit neutral job programs with progressive tax increases is not simply an ideological preference. Rather, progressive tax increases (i.e., raising money from high-income households and corporations) impose a much smaller drag on economic recovery than broader based increases, allowing for the greatest job gains when paired with infrastructure spending. This is an extremely well documented piece of empirical economics.

Below we have replicated the tables for revenue and job creation using updated numbers. We only show numbers for 2014 through 2016, as the job creation numbers depend on the assumption that the economy is not at full employment. Beyond 2016 it’s impossible to assess this assumption one way or the other.

We will also release state numbers in separate blog posts throughout the year. Today we will release a report on Ohio.

Table 1 Table 1 (continued)

Revenue Estimate from Four Progressive Tax Changes, and GDP and Job Impacts If that Revenue Finances Infrastructure Spending

2014 2015 2016
Cap deductions at 28%, Revenue in billions $14.66 $40.29 $44.22
GDP Impact, billions $16.42 $45.12 $49.52
Job Impact, thousands 118.35 307.09 316.24
Fairness in Taxation Act of 2013, Revenue in billions $33.50 $85.00 $88.70
GDP Impact, billions $35.85 $90.95 $94.91
Job Impact, thousands 258.40 618.99 606.06
 International Corporate Tax Changes, Revenue in billions $5.65 $13.24 $15.39
GDP Impact, billions $6.04 $14.16 $16.47
Job Impact, thousands 43.57 96.39 105.16
Financial Transactions Tax, Revenue in billions $56.94 $79.18 $82.47
GDP Impact, billions $59.79 $83.14 $86.59
Job Impact, thousands 431.02 565.82 552.96
Total Jobs 851.35 1,588.29 1,580.42

Table 2 Table 2 (continued)

Instituting all Four Revenue Increases To Finance Infrastructure Projects

2014 2015 2016
Alabama $13,851.18 $25,801.99 $25,669.13
Alaska $2,243.30 $4,183.40 $4,162.88
Arizona $14,990.52 $27,982.15 $27,842.85
Arkansas $8,596.40 $16,012.85 $15,929.90
California $71,907.96 $134,600.36 $133,986.23
Colorado $14,441.42 $26,945.21 $26,812.38
Connecticut $7,640.02 $14,319.28 $14,255.74
Delaware $2,848.14 $5,309.32 $5,282.13
District of Columbia $5,418.39 $10,092.32 $10,040.07
Florida $44,296.54 $82,704.94 $82,303.07
Georgia $26,110.15 $48,688.83 $48,444.98
Hawaii $4,045.38 $7,543.81 $7,504.77
Idaho $4,350.85 $8,106.21 $8,065.53
Illinois $35,817.66 $66,843.39 $66,513.49
Indiana $21,121.81 $39,341.17 $39,139.61
Iowa $11,409.56 $21,244.45 $21,134.98
Kansas $9,575.12 $17,842.02 $17,751.98
Kentucky $13,502.26 $25,145.48 $25,016.82
Louisiana $14,140.40 $26,340.97 $26,206.49
Maine $4,372.39 $8,144.96 $8,103.49
Maryland $14,179.22 $26,506.00 $26,379.89
Massachusetts $18,548.06 $34,654.61 $34,488.77
Michigan $27,181.98 $50,673.42 $50,418.92
Minnesota $17,640.21 $32,903.51 $32,738.60
Mississippi $8,114.72 $15,112.96 $15,036.13
Missouri $19,259.71 $35,883.17 $35,699.23
Montana $3,206.69 $5,972.01 $5,941.85
Nebraska $7,097.00 $13,217.40 $13,148.74
Nevada $7,149.12 $13,339.78 $13,275.43
New Hampshire $4,004.01 $7,472.23 $7,434.44
New Jersey $18,832.90 $35,276.43 $35,117.64
New Mexico $5,902.35 $10,994.34 $10,938.14
New York $52,238.12 $97,550.35 $97,078.19
North Carolina $27,544.73 $51,340.03 $51,079.28
North Dakota $3,190.04 $5,935.34 $5,905.09
Ohio $37,169.64 $69,247.17 $68,892.06
Oklahoma $11,626.35 $21,654.40 $21,543.48
Oregon $11,414.73 $21,273.84 $21,165.18
Pennsylvania $39,509.15 $73,648.58 $73,275.90
Rhode Island $3,077.54 $5,741.35 $5,711.93
South Carolina $13,496.69 $25,142.19 $25,013.83
South Dakota $3,155.27 $5,873.09 $5,842.89
Tennessee $19,291.26 $35,941.27 $35,757.47
Texas $69,142.58 $128,975.46 $128,334.88
Utah $8,771.62 $16,341.18 $16,257.92
Vermont $2,109.55 $3,931.82 $3,912.45
Virginia $21,961.77 $41,015.18 $40,818.34
Washington $17,920.35 $33,439.84 $33,276.30
West Virginia $5,890.58 $10,967.15 $10,908.54
Wisconsin $19,998.50 $37,256.78 $37,067.31
Wyoming $2,044.57 $3,811.10 $3,790.64
Total, United States $851,348.45 $1,588,285.08 $1,580,415.95
Table 3 Table 3 (continued)

Investing Revenue from Capping Deductions at 28 Percent

2014 2015 2016
Alabama $118,353.10 $307,092.81 $316,235.52
Alaska $1,918.58 $4,979.43 $5,127.27
Arizona $311.57 $808.20 $832.34
Arkansas $2,086.29 $5,414.13 $5,574.01
California $1,190.62 $3,089.98 $3,182.01
Colorado $10,071.44 $26,132.22 $26,910.73
Connecticut $2,008.21 $5,210.12 $5,365.53
Delaware $1,073.51 $2,783.96 $2,866.95
District of Columbia $395.43 $1,026.33 $1,056.49
Florida $750.37 $1,947.52 $2,004.82
Georgia $6,169.22 $16,007.00 $16,483.76
Hawaii $3,626.06 $9,408.04 $9,688.68
Idaho $561.69 $1,457.89 $1,500.09
Illinois $602.90 $1,564.61 $1,611.38
Indiana $4,982.95 $12,929.58 $13,314.29
Iowa $2,925.57 $7,590.77 $7,817.09
Kansas $1,578.81 $4,097.48 $4,219.69
Kentucky $1,327.24 $3,444.64 $3,547.24
Louisiana $1,869.42 $4,850.75 $4,995.60
Maine $1,959.06 $5,083.01 $5,235.43
Maryland $605.79 $1,572.45 $1,619.22
Massachusetts $1,980.02 $5,137.93 $5,290.29
Michigan $2,587.26 $6,713.53 $6,912.65
Minnesota $3,772.09 $9,787.81 $10,080.55
Mississippi $2,451.35 $6,360.43 $6,548.99
Missouri $1,124.11 $2,915.79 $3,003.32
Montana $2,669.67 $6,926.95 $7,132.10
Nebraska $443.86 $1,151.88 $1,186.59
Nevada $983.14 $2,550.14 $2,625.55
New Hampshire $994.71 $2,579.95 $2,656.90
New Jersey $556.63 $1,445.34 $1,487.55
New Mexico $2,642.20 $6,854.76 $7,058.42
New York $817.60 $2,121.71 $2,185.09
North Carolina $7,277.43 $18,883.56 $19,446.32
North Dakota $3,821.25 $9,914.93 $10,209.08
Ohio $440.97 $1,144.03 $1,178.76
Oklahoma $5,150.66 $13,365.85 $13,762.59
Oregon $1,609.90 $4,177.51 $4,302.77
Pennsylvania $1,583.15 $4,108.46 $4,230.66
Rhode Island $5,482.47 $14,225.83 $14,648.23
South Carolina $427.23 $1,109.51 $1,142.70
South Dakota $1,870.14 $4,852.32 $4,997.17
Tennessee $436.63 $1,133.04 $1,166.22
Texas $2,674.01 $6,937.94 $7,144.63
Utah $9,609.50 $24,933.26 $25,675.54
Vermont $1,215.92 $3,154.32 $3,247.85
Virginia $292.77 $759.55 $782.18
Washington $3,060.76 $7,940.73 $8,177.61
West Virginia $2,492.56 $6,467.14 $6,660.28
Wisconsin $814.71 $2,115.44 $2,177.25
Wyoming $2,771.60 $7,190.60 $7,404.84
Total, United States $236,422.10 $613,451.18 $631,710.82
Table 4 Table 4 (continued)

Investing Revenue from “Fairness in Taxation”

2014 2015 2016
Alabama $258,404.42 $618,988.20 $606,060.03
Alaska $4,189.58 $10,036.04 $9,826.11
Arizona $680.00 $1,629.04 $1,595.14
Arkansas $4,555.13 $10,911.53 $10,683.58
California $2,600.19 $6,228.53 $6,098.27
Colorado $21,988.94 $52,672.80 $51,573.13
Connecticut $4,384.62 $10,503.28 $10,284.02
Delaware $2,343.40 $5,612.84 $5,495.47
District of Columbia $863.19 $2,067.12 $2,024.19
Florida $1,638.87 $3,925.47 $3,843.25
Georgia $13,468.72 $32,264.04 $31,589.71
Hawaii $7,917.10 $18,964.62 $18,568.31
Idaho $1,226.29 $2,937.31 $2,876.01
Illinois $1,317.06 $3,154.69 $3,089.28
Indiana $10,879.16 $26,060.03 $25,515.27
Iowa $6,387.82 $15,300.93 $14,981.61
Kansas $3,447.83 $8,259.20 $8,086.70
Kentucky $2,898.68 $6,942.98 $6,798.30
Louisiana $4,082.45 $9,778.89 $9,574.58
Maine $4,277.49 $10,246.79 $10,032.48
Maryland $1,322.79 $3,167.95 $3,101.83
Massachusetts $4,323.29 $10,356.15 $10,139.74
Michigan $5,648.53 $13,530.72 $13,248.47
Minnesota $8,236.45 $19,730.10 $19,317.89
Mississippi $5,351.67 $12,819.59 $12,551.58
Missouri $2,454.21 $5,878.60 $5,755.79
Montana $5,828.03 $13,960.85 $13,669.37
Nebraska $969.50 $2,322.94 $2,274.46
Nevada $2,145.90 $5,140.30 $5,032.55
New Hampshire $2,171.25 $5,200.61 $5,092.14
New Jersey $1,216.07 $2,912.79 $2,851.55
New Mexico $5,767.93 $13,817.03 $13,528.23
New York $1,785.66 $4,276.73 $4,187.62
North Carolina $15,889.40 $38,062.45 $37,267.09
North Dakota $8,342.76 $19,984.59 $19,566.92
Ohio $962.96 $2,306.37 $2,258.16
Oklahoma $11,246.35 $26,939.50 $26,377.14
Oregon $3,515.71 $8,421.58 $8,245.40
Pennsylvania $3,456.83 $8,280.41 $8,107.40
Rhode Island $11,969.69 $28,672.60 $28,073.89
South Carolina $933.52 $2,236.12 $2,189.78
South Dakota $4,082.85 $9,780.22 $9,575.83
Tennessee $953.14 $2,283.18 $2,235.57
Texas $5,837.85 $13,983.38 $13,691.32
Utah $20,980.19 $50,255.74 $49,206.46
Vermont $2,654.16 $6,358.43 $6,225.61
Virginia $639.11 $1,530.29 $1,498.54
Washington $6,681.82 $16,006.10 $15,671.60
West Virginia $5,442.44 $13,036.31 $12,764.22
Wisconsin $1,779.53 $4,262.81 $4,173.20
Wyoming $6,051.29 $14,495.03 $14,192.51
Total, United States $516,191.81 $1,236,493.83 $1,210,667.30
Table 5 Table 5 (continued)

Investing Revenue from International Tax Reform

2014 2015 2016
Alabama $43,566.21 $96,387.39 $105,162.01
Alaska $690.98 $1,529.03 $1,668.46
Arizona $113.67 $251.12 $274.56
Arkansas $773.24 $1,710.80 $1,866.14
California $429.25 $949.47 $1,035.71
Colorado $3,873.68 $8,570.73 $9,350.98
Connecticut $741.08 $1,639.05 $1,788.42
Delaware $420.27 $929.54 $1,013.75
District of Columbia $144.33 $318.88 $348.05
Florida $269.96 $597.90 $652.18
Georgia $2,295.79 $5,078.18 $5,540.98
Hawaii $1,326.62 $2,934.50 $3,201.75
Idaho $204.90 $453.61 $495.05
Illinois $218.36 $483.10 $527.15
Indiana $1,841.87 $4,075.30 $4,446.13
Iowa $1,052.92 $2,329.43 $2,541.97
Kansas $565.35 $1,250.81 $1,365.18
Kentucky $480.85 $1,063.47 $1,160.74
Louisiana $672.29 $1,486.78 $1,622.00
Maine $706.69 $1,562.52 $1,704.79
Maryland $218.36 $483.10 $527.15
Massachusetts $749.31 $1,657.38 $1,807.85
Michigan $972.16 $2,150.06 $2,345.98
Minnesota $1,374.48 $3,040.53 $3,317.49
Mississippi $899.62 $1,990.62 $2,171.96
Missouri $404.57 $895.26 $976.58
Montana $964.68 $2,134.11 $2,328.24
Nebraska $159.28 $353.16 $385.22
Nevada $352.97 $782.06 $853.24
New Hampshire $367.18 $812.35 $887.03
New Jersey $205.65 $454.41 $495.89
New Mexico $1,026.00 $2,268.84 $2,476.08
New York $295.39 $652.91 $712.16
North Carolina $2,713.82 $6,003.73 $6,550.50
North Dakota $1,387.94 $3,071.62 $3,351.28
Ohio $157.04 $346.78 $378.47
Oklahoma $1,859.82 $4,114.36 $4,489.21
Oregon $578.81 $1,281.10 $1,398.13
Pennsylvania $575.07 $1,271.54 $1,387.15
Rhode Island $1,995.17 $4,414.91 $4,816.15
South Carolina $156.29 $346.78 $377.62
South Dakota $674.53 $1,492.36 $1,627.91
Tennessee $156.29 $345.19 $376.78
Texas $966.18 $2,138.10 $2,332.47
Utah $3,531.18 $7,811.79 $8,523.09
Vermont $439.72 $971.79 $1,060.21
Virginia $106.19 $235.17 $256.82
Washington $1,142.66 $2,528.73 $2,759.08
West Virginia $920.56 $2,036.85 $2,222.64
Wisconsin $291.65 $644.94 $702.87
Wyoming $1,000.58 $2,213.83 $2,416.10
Total, United States $87,031.47 $192,545.98 $210,077.33
Table 6 Table 6 (continued)

Investing Revenue from a Financial Transaction Tax

2014 2015 2016
Alabama $431,023.88 $565,818.01 $552,960.33
Alaska $7,052.05 $9,257.48 $9,047.28
Arizona $1,138.07 $1,495.04 $1,460.85
Arkansas $7,575.86 $9,945.69 $9,719.12
California $4,376.35 $5,744.87 $5,613.90
Colorado $35,973.90 $47,224.62 $46,151.39
Connecticut $7,307.49 $9,592.76 $9,374.41
Delaware $3,802.84 $4,992.94 $4,879.58
District of Columbia $1,445.20 $1,896.98 $1,853.40
Florida $2,759.20 $3,621.43 $3,539.82
Georgia $22,362.80 $29,355.71 $28,688.63
Hawaii $13,240.36 $17,381.67 $16,986.24
Idaho $2,052.50 $2,694.99 $2,633.62
Illinois $2,212.52 $2,903.81 $2,837.71
Indiana $18,113.68 $23,778.48 $23,237.80
Iowa $10,755.49 $14,120.03 $13,798.94
Kansas $5,817.57 $7,636.96 $7,463.40
Kentucky $4,868.35 $6,390.93 $6,245.70
Louisiana $6,878.11 $9,029.06 $8,824.64
Maine $7,197.17 $9,448.65 $9,233.79
Maryland $2,225.45 $2,921.45 $2,855.29
Massachusetts $7,126.60 $9,354.54 $9,142.00
Michigan $9,340.11 $12,260.30 $11,981.67
Minnesota $13,798.96 $18,114.98 $17,702.99
Mississippi $8,937.57 $11,732.87 $11,466.08
Missouri $4,131.84 $5,423.32 $5,300.45
Montana $9,797.33 $12,861.26 $12,569.52
Nebraska $1,634.05 $2,144.03 $2,095.57
Nevada $3,614.98 $4,744.91 $4,637.40
New Hampshire $3,615.98 $4,746.87 $4,639.36
New Jersey $2,025.66 $2,659.70 $2,599.45
New Mexico $9,396.77 $12,335.79 $12,054.91
New York $3,003.71 $3,942.98 $3,853.27
North Carolina $26,357.47 $34,600.60 $33,814.28
North Dakota $13,992.78 $18,368.89 $17,952.00
Ohio $1,629.08 $2,138.15 $2,089.71
Oklahoma $18,912.81 $24,827.46 $24,263.12
Oregon $5,921.93 $7,774.20 $7,597.18
Pennsylvania $5,799.68 $7,613.43 $7,439.96
Rhode Island $20,061.82 $26,335.24 $25,737.64
South Carolina $1,560.50 $2,048.94 $2,001.83
South Dakota $6,869.16 $9,017.29 $8,812.92
Tennessee $1,609.20 $2,111.68 $2,064.32
Texas $9,813.23 $12,881.85 $12,589.05
Utah $35,021.70 $45,974.67 $44,929.79
Vermont $4,461.83 $5,856.63 $5,724.25
Virginia $1,071.47 $1,406.81 $1,374.91
Washington $11,076.54 $14,539.63 $14,210.04
West Virginia $9,064.79 $11,899.53 $11,629.15
Wisconsin $3,004.70 $3,943.96 $3,855.23
Wyoming $10,175.03 $13,357.32 $13,053.87
Total, United States $861,006.11 $1,130,269.40 $1,104,587.74